Eli Lilly Soars on blockbuster Drug Demand, Forecasts $83 Billion in 2026 Revenue
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Eli Lilly and Company on wednesday reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that significantly exceeded expectations, fueled by surging demand for its weight loss drug, Zepbound, and diabetes treatment, Mounjaro.
The company anticipates revenue of $80 billion and $83 billion in 2026, a figure that surpasses analyst projections of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.
The strong financial performance comes as the company prepares for expanded U.S. market access to obesity treatments through upcoming medicare coverage. According to a recent interview with CNBC,Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks anticipates this coverage will be “a big multiplier on the eligible pool” of patients.
Lilly’s Dominance Contrasts with Novo Nordisk’s Outlook
Lilly’s optimistic forecast stands in stark contrast to the outlook of its primary competitor, Novo Nordisk. Novo Nordisk cautioned on Tuesday that it anticipates declining sales and profits this year,citing lower prices in the U.S.resulting from agreements made with President Donald Trump to reduce the cost of obesity and diabetes medications.Thes deals also impact lilly,but the company appears better positioned to navigate the changing landscape.
The agreements between Novo Nordisk and Lilly with the Trump administration involve price reductions for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries beginning in 2026, alongside discounted direct-to-consumer offerings via the yet-to-launch TrumpRx platform. In exchange, both companies will receive a three-year exemption from tariffs. While acknowledging a “step down in pricing” early this year due to the agreement, Ricks expressed confidence that volume growth would “ramp on the back half of the year.”
Mounjaro and Zepbound Drive Revenue Growth
Mounjaro generated $7.41 billion in revenue during the quarter, a 110% increase year-over-year. U.S. sales for Mounjaro reached $4.1 billion, up 57%, despite lower realized prices. Zepbound, launched approximately three years ago, contributed $4.2 billion in U.S. revenue for the fourth quarter, a 122% increase from the same period last year, also experiencing a decline in realized prices as demand increased. These figures both exceeded analyst expectations, as reported by StreetAccount.
Hear’s a summary of Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter performance compared to Wall Street estimates:
- Earnings per share: $7.54 adjusted vs. $6.67 expected
- Revenue: $19.29 billion vs. $17.96 billion expected
Following the earnings report, Eli Lilly shares climbed more than 7% in premarket trading.
The company’s fourth-quarter revenue totaled $19.29 billion, a 43% increase compared to the previous year. U.S.revenue climbed to $12.9 billion, driven by a 50% increase in sales volume of Mounjaro and Zepbound, partially offset by lower realized prices. Net income for the quarter reached $6.64 billion, or $7.39 per share,compared to $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share were $7.54.
Eli Lilly is actively working to maintain its leadership position in the rapidly expanding market for GLP-1 medications, even as Novo Nordisk prepares to launch its new oral obesity pill, wegovy, in the U.S.Lilly is also pursuing approval for its own oral weight loss drug, orforglipron, later this year.
While the Trump administration’s drug pricing deals are expected to broaden access to these vital medications, they are also projected to impact overall sales for both Lilly and novo Nordisk. The long-term effects of these agreements and the evolving competitive landscape will be closely watched as the market for obesity and diabetes treatments continues to evolve.
