Emmy Predictions: ‘The Studio’ and ‘Severance‘ Lead the Pack as Voting Closes
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As of Thursday,September 7th,the Emmy campaigns have concluded and the votes are tallied,with early predictions from Gold Derby offering a glimpse into the potential winners across key categories. The outlook favors Apple TV+ and HBO Max,with strong showings expected for both comedy and drama series.
Comedy Contenders: ‘The Studio’ Dominates
The Studio, apple TV+’s critically acclaimed comedy about a fictional movie company, currently boasts an 84 percent chance of winning Best Comedy Series. The show’s record-breaking 23 Emmy nominations – the most ever for a first-year comedy – underscore its impact on voters. Last year’s winner, Hacks (HBO Max), remains a strong contender in the No. 2 position, continuing its hold on the category.The writing team for “Slippery Slope,” an episode marked by Deborah Vance’s surprising decision to leave her show,is favored to win Best Comedy Writing. The writing team previously secured this award in 2021 and 2024.
Drama Race: ‘Severance’ Emerges as the Favorite
Shifting to the drama landscape, Severance (Apple TV+) is the clear favorite for best Drama Series, with a 72 percent probability of winning.Ben Stiller is also heavily favored (82 percent) for best drama Directing for his work on “Cold Harbor,” and Dan Erickson is predicted to win Best Drama Writing for the same episode (84 percent). The sci-fi workplace thriller has captivated Emmy voters, earning a remarkable 27 nominations – the highest total for any program this year. Its first season in 2022 garnered 14 nominations and wins for Best Main Title Design and Best Music Composition.
“Cold Harbor,” the Season 2 finale, featured compelling sequences, including a dynamic interplay between the “innie” and “outie” personalities of Adam Scott’s character and a memorable marching band performance.
HBO Max’s medical drama, The Pitt, is considered Severance’s closest competitor, but a potential vote split due to the similar titles of its nominated episodes – “7:00 A.M.” and “6:00 P.M.” for directing, and “7:00 A.M.” and “2:00 P.M.” for writing – could hinder its chances.
Limited Series Showdown: ‘Adolescence’ Stands Out
Adolescence (Netflix), a psychological crime drama centered on a 13-year-old accused murderer (Owen Cooper), is the overwhelming frontrunner in the limited series categories.It currently holds a 93 percent chance of winning Best Limited Series, a 94 percent chance for Best Movie/Limited Directing, and a 94 percent chance for Best Movie/Limited Writing. All four episodes were directed by Philip Barantini and written by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham.
The series, filmed entirely in single takes, aims to spark crucial conversations about online bullying and toxic masculinity, with creators stating they are “saving lives” by bringing these issues to the forefront. HBO’s adaptation of The penguin is seen as the runner-up, but faces a significant gap in predicted success.
One analyst noted the late-stage uncertainty surrounding the drama races,as evidenced by a recent comment: “Is anyone making any last-minute changes? I just switched from “The Pitt” to “Severance” for Best Drama series … but I could be convinced to switch back lol!”
Gold Derby’s emmy predictions are based on the combined forecasts of over 2,000 individuals,including media experts,awards season editors,and a broad user base. Emmy voters have until September 14th to finalize their selections and participate in the ongoing discussion in the TV forums.
