The 250-meter tanker Rong Lin Wan is currently navigating the coast of West Africa, carrying a cargo that has develop into a symbol of European vulnerability. When the vessel docks in Rotterdam on the afternoon of April 9, it will mark the arrival of the final shipment of aviation kerosene to abandon the Persian Gulf bound for Europe.
The ship, sailing under a Singaporean flag, departed Mina Al Ahmadi in Kuwait on February 26. According to tracking data from Marine Traffic, it managed to clear the Strait of Hormuz just moments before the passage was blocked by Iran. Its arrival signals the beginning of a precarious period for the continent’s aviation sector, as a growing European jet fuel shortage threatens to ground hundreds of aircraft during the peak summer travel season.
Industry executives warn that the disruption is not merely a logistical hiccup but a systemic crisis. Projections suggest that by late April or early May, available kerosene reserves in Europe could drop to half of their normal levels. Whereas airlines may attempt to stretch their supply by tapping into strategic reserves or delaying routine refinery maintenance, experts warn these measures may only buy a few weeks of time.
The Hormuz Bottleneck and European Dependency
The current crisis is a direct consequence of the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. While Europe does not rely on the Persian Gulf for the majority of its crude oil, its dependence on the region for refined jet fuel is profound. Analysis of official records indicates that roughly 50 percent of the jet fuel available at European airports originates from refineries located along the Strait of Hormuz.
This dependency varies sharply by nation. Some European countries are almost entirely reliant on foreign imports to keep their fleets airborne, leaving them acutely exposed to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East.
| Country | Import Dependency (%) |
|---|---|
| Poland | 97% |
| Greece | 82% |
| Spain & Portugal | 70% |
| Italy | 50% |
Attempts to pivot to alternative suppliers have met with limited success. While the U.S. And West Africa provide some relief, they cannot fill the massive void left by the Gulf. India, another critical source, has seen its shipments diverted eastward toward Southeast Asian markets, where profit margins are currently higher. Major exporters such as China and South Korea have implemented export restrictions to protect their own domestic markets, which are too reeling from the loss of Hormuz-bound crude.
A Perfect Storm of Costs and Regulations
The shortage is not solely the result of a blockade; This proves the culmination of several years of eroding supply margins. The European aviation sector has been squeezed by a combination of refinery closures—driven by lower profitability—and stringent environmental mandates. New regulations requiring a higher blend of biofuels have placed additional pressure on the system, as these alternatives are not only scarce but can cost up to five times more than conventional kerosene.
Data from the analysis firm Vortexa reveals that jet fuel imports into Europe have plummeted to 420,000 barrels per day, a 40 percent decrease from the previous week. This represents the lowest import level since March 2022, the period immediately following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy shock. Simultaneously, stocks at the critical Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub have fallen below historical averages.
Financial pressure is mounting alongside the physical shortage. The price of kerosene has surged to nearly $1,800 per tonne, more than double the price recorded in February. Airlines are also struggling with the “crack spread”—the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of the refined product. Because many fuel contracts are pegged to crude prices, the spike in refinery margins is being borne entirely by the airlines.
Flight Cancellations and Fleet Groundings
For the major carriers, the mathematics of the crisis are stark: without fuel, planes cannot fly. Lufthansa is reportedly evaluating scenarios that would involve the grounding of between 20 and 40 aircraft. Across the industry, Notice fears that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through April, thousands of flights will be canceled and hundreds of aircraft will remain on the tarmac.
The risk is most acute for tourist destinations and remote islands, which are harder to resupply and more dependent on consistent delivery schedules. If the supply chain does not stabilize, the period between June and September—the most profitable window for European airlines—could see significant operational cuts.
Though, not all executives share a bleak outlook. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, suggested that the risk is manageable if a diplomatic resolution is reached quickly. O’Leary noted that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by mid-to-late April, the supply risk would essentially vanish. However, he cautioned that continued disruptions could place 10 to 25 percent of deliveries at risk through May, and June.
The Airport Perspective: Systemic vs. Local Risks
While airlines express alarm, airport operators offer a slightly more tempered view. Olivier Jankovec, Director General of ACI Europe, stated that a survey of European airports found that 86 percent of respondents reported fuel stocks that were either within the norm (79 percent) or above it (7 percent).
Jankovec argued that there is currently no evidence of an immediate “systemic” shortage at the airport level. Nevertheless, he urged a comprehensive audit of production and refinery capacities to ensure that planned production aligns with actual needs. This discrepancy in perspective—between the airlines who buy the fuel and the airports that store it—highlights the volatility of the current market, where local surpluses may exist even as the broader supply chain fractures.
The industry now looks toward the conclude of April as a critical turning point. Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens or the blockade persists will determine if the European summer is defined by record travel or record cancellations. For more information on aviation standards and safety, travelers and industry stakeholders can monitor updates from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency.
Do you have travel plans this summer? Share your thoughts or concerns in the comments below.
Worth a look
