2024-08-29 00:56:28
Vladimir Putin accuses Ukraine of attacking the Kursk nuclear power plant. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warns of a reactor accident. The situation is complicated.
Since the Ukrainian army’s advance on the Russian region of Kursk, one building has been the subject of particularly frequent discussions: the Kursk nuclear power plant, about 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. On Friday, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the power plant with a drone. It was an act of “nuclear terrorism,” the Russian state news agency “Tass” quoted the spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry in Moscow as saying.
However, the Russian accusations appear unfounded in light of the images published by “Tass”. On the one hand, it is not clear from the images that the drone attacked the nuclear power plant. On the other hand, the drone shown does not have the attack power to seriously damage the building – and the images published by Russia show a drone that can only be controlled by its pilot a few kilometers away.
Nevertheless, nuclear power plants are often under fire in this war. The question arises: What happens if the nuclear power plant in Kursk really does become the target of an attack with heavy weapons? After all, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned in an interview with the US news channel Bloomberg of a “second Chernobyl”. The reactor installed in Kursk is identical to the Chernobyl reactor that exploded in 1986.
Sören Kliem, an expert in reactor safety at the Helmholtz Center in Leipzig, gives the all-clear in an interview with t-online. “A situation like in Chernobyl is out of the question,” says Kliem. This is due to the nature of an attack on the nuclear power plant. A missile can only damage parts of the reactor. However, the fuel elements in the reactor are secured separately, so the probability of a devastating accident is low.
However, even a minor accident in a nuclear power plant can release radiation. “If a rocket damages the cooling of the fuel elements, a local meltdown can occur,” explains Kliem. The residual heat from the reactor can then no longer escape. “A bit like the nuclear disaster in Fukushima.” But the expert adds: “A disaster of this magnitude is really unlikely.” In Germany, there is probably no need to worry in the event of an attack.
Why does Grossi, head of the IAEA, still see the danger of a catastrophe? In an interview with Bloomberg, Grossi explains that there is no protective concrete dome at the Kursk nuclear power plant that could shield the reactors from artillery fire.
“And when you add to that the fact that Ukrainian troops are advancing so far that their artillery could hit the power plant, then of course this is of great concern to the agency and to me,” he added.
Both Russia and Ukraine probably want to avoid a fight over the nuclear power plant – even though there are already reports that Russian soldiers are digging trenches around the power plant.
A nuclear power plant as a bargaining chip?
If the fighting in Kursk reaches the nuclear power plant, the IAEA recommends that the defending power should hand the plant over to the attackers. It is unclear whether Russia would implement this suggestion. One thing is clear: a possible capture of the nuclear power plant in Kursk could be strategically important for Ukraine – not for generating electricity, for example, because laying high-voltage power lines through occupied and contested territory would probably be too risky.
But a Kursk nuclear power plant controlled by Ukraine would be a valuable bargaining chip in possible negotiations about an exchange of two power plants. Ukraine could withdraw from the Kursk nuclear power plant and in return get back control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which it captured in 2022, from Russia. However, there are currently no signs of such a mental exercise on the battlefield.
But a captured nuclear power plant would certainly be valuable at the negotiating table, and Kiev is at least trying to establish itself in the Kursk region. Ukrainian soldiers are not only rushing forward to make rapid, large-scale gains in territory, they are also building extensive defenses throughout the region. This suggests that Ukraine wants to hold on to the captured territories until a possible end to the war or until possible peace negotiations begin.