“More disadvantages than advantages”
Preferential mortgages for new buildings spurred housing prices, complained to Vladimir Putin during the “Direct Line”. “Wouldn’t it be better not to do that?” – he reacted, assessing the role of last year’s government initiative as extremely good. More than half a million people took advantage of the preferential mortgage, so it was decided to extend the measure for a year, slightly increasing the interest rate, the president recalled. Experts believe the situation is not so straightforward.
By the way, against the background of the rush of demand for housing loans, the aggregate mortgage debt of Russians exceeded 9 trillion rubles last year, which became an absolute record for the country. Moreover, the demand increased in parallel with the rise in apartment prices. In the fall of 2020, they jumped by 4.1%, and in the sector of new buildings, the cost per square meter soared by 8.6%. As Putin said, “This is to some extent inevitable and related to the supply and needs of citizens.”
“The program has more minuses than pluses,” says Alexander Razuvaev, head of the IAC Alpari. – In principle, any interference of the state in the process of market pricing is evil. Concessional mortgages lead to overvaluation of real estate, unfair valuation of these assets. By the way, not everyone takes a mortgage, someone prefers not to take risks, but to save up for an apartment in shares and bank deposits. They only lost from the actions of the state. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. “
On the one hand, thanks to preferential mortgages, many people, especially in the regions, have finally managed to solve the housing issue, says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Institute of Contemporary Development. In addition, according to him, the program has become a clear help for developers, who have almost returned to the pre-pandemic level in terms of real estate commissioning. As for the negative consequences, the main thing is a sharp rise in housing prices: over the past year by 20%, from January to April 2021 – by 17.6%. That is, the citizens initially expected to acquire a certain amount of square meters of living space, but in fact it turned out less. Another disadvantage: the increase in the total debt burden of the population to 11.9% and inflation of a bubble in the consumer lending market, Maslennikov sums up.
Meanwhile, buyers’ activity is declining today. This is due to two circumstances: firstly, with an increase in the rate on preferential mortgages from 6.5% to 7%, and secondly, with the limitation of the amount of preferential loans to 3 million rubles in all regions. Private investors who purchase apartments for the purpose of further sale or lease are losing interest in this method of investment.
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