2023-10-06 15:31:02
► How did the attack in Homs take place?
A wave of panic seized in a few seconds, Thursday October 5, the military academy of Homs, in central Syria, at the end of a solemn officer promotions ceremony. Videos posted on social networks show the victims collapsing between explosions and gunshots. The attack, attributed by the regime to “terrorist groups”, was carried out using drones armed with explosives. The toll is very heavy: at least 112 dead, including 21 civilians, and more than 120 injured. Defense Minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas, who attended the ceremony, had left the scene just before the attack.
The location of the attack carries a very strong symbolism, as explained by Fabrice Balanche, lecturer at Lyon 2 University and specialist in Syria. “This is a very well-prepared attack on the flagship of the Syrian army, where Hafez Al Assad (the former president and father of the current head of state, Editor’s note) completed his military studies. The symbol is huge. » This attack is also reminiscent of the “massacre” of the Aleppo artillery school when, on June 16, 1979, 83 young Alawite cadets were killed with automatic weapons and grenades by the Muslim Brotherhood. .
► Which groups are singled out?
At this time, no one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but government forces have carried out bombings against the Idlib region, the country’s last rebel stronghold, located some 120 kilometers away in the northwest of the country. country. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recorded 8 deaths and 30 injured in these reprisals.
The use of drones loaded with explosives is reminiscent of the modus operandi of the jihadists of Idlib, and in particular of the main group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). Coming from the former local branch of Al-Qaeda, which has around 50,000 fighters, HTS largely controls the enclave of some 4 million inhabitants. “HTS, which has already used these drones, is a master in the art of their artisanal manufacturing. Its members showed that they were capable of sending them from Idlib, in 2017-2018, by causing enormous damage against the Russian air base of Hmeimim (west of the country), explains Fabrice Balanche. Even though there are regular bombardments by the Syrian army on the front line in Idlib, the question is why did they do this? There is still a lot of darkness, and their logic is difficult to understand. »
► What could be the scale of Damascus’ response?
In addition to the first retaliatory strikes launched after the attack, the regime promised to retaliate “firmly”. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres quickly warned of the risk of escalation, in unison with UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, who called for “immediate de-escalation” violence.
What nature will Bashar Al Assad’s reprisals be? “He has to make a mark. He may very well strike here or there, saying that these are supposed drone manufacturing workshops, but I have doubts about the possibility of launching massive reprisals against Idlib. Hitting HTS on its head requires enormous resources,” adds the specialist.
And to act, Damascus depends greatly on Moscow, the Syrian army being unable to intervene without Russian artillery and aircraft. “We know that, since 2022, Russia’s priority has been to get closer to Turkey and avoid disagreements. However, Idlib is a subject of anger, explains Fabrice Balanche. The Turks protect Idlib and do not want a Syrian army offensive to throw 2 million Syrians towards Turkey. The Russians therefore told Assad that there was no question of launching an offensive on Idlib, apart from skirmishes, artillery fire on the front line, and to instead turn against the Kurds to get closer to the Turks . Everything will therefore depend on the Russians. »
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