Time.news – The rise in Italian GDP in 2021 is stronger than expected: this is what the Confindustria Studies Center finds, which predicts a + 6.1%, 2 points more than the April estimates, followed by a further + 4.1% in 2022. “The broad upward revision – reads the forecast report ‘Which Italian economy has emerged from the crisis?’ – is explained from the more limited impact of the Delta variant of Covid, also thanks to the effectiveness and capillarity of vaccinations in Italy, which made it possible to relax the containment measures “.
Furthermore, from the Istat reviews regarding the first quarter, it emerges that “this robust restart of GDP, equal to over + 10% in the two-year period, after almost -9% in 2020, would bring our economy back to above pre-crisis levels in the first half of 2022, in advance of initial expectations “.
Confindustria’s estimates for this year exceed those of the government (+ 6%) and the International Monetary Fund (+ 5.8%), but are slightly lower for 2022 compared to the + 4.2% forecast by the executive and the IMF.
Despite the positive prospects, however, the industrialists highlight the scenario “presents some downside risks, which relate to various elements of uncertainty: pandemic resurgence and new restrictions, prolonged shortages of raw materials, high inflation and premature rise in interest rates, ineffective management of the NRP, difficulties in the Chinese real estate market “.
Consumption starts again
Italian household spending starts again but will still remain far below pre-crisis levels also in 2022. “In the second half of 2021 and then in 2022, as already in spring – Confindustria stresses – a recovery in household spending is expected, especially in services. In particular for expenses outside the home and for travel, penalized until April by the limitations due to the pandemic “.
Private consumption, partially blocked and diverted to durable goods during the lockdown, from May-June 2021 “they could also be divided into services such as restaurants, accommodation, entertainment, as well as non-durable goods. The partial recovery so far of tourist flows, of foreigners to Italy and also of Italians to abroad, provides growth margins to be exploited for services in the second half of 2021 and then in 2022 “.
It also states that “the greater propensity to save, largely ‘forced’ until the first quarter of 2021, due to the anti-Covid restrictions, should continue to diminish in the coming quarters, freeing up resources for spending. part, it is conceivable that it will remain higher than in the past, beyond the forecast horizon. Furthermore, all the extra savings of 2020 are unlikely to flow back into consumption in 2021 and 2022.“. Therefore, the CSC scenario foresees” private consumption still far below pre-crisis levels even in 2022 (-3.7% compared to 2019) “.
Unemployment and inflation
“With employment recovering only slightly – the Study Center underlines – the unemployment rate will grow progressively, returning on average for the year close to its pre-crisis value (9.9%). ‘occupation it would tend to reduce the unemployment rate. However, the increase in the workforce will further strengthen (+ 1.3%, after + 1% in 2021) and this will keep the unemployment rate high, which is forecast at 9.6% “.
“The dynamics of consumer prices in Italy” reads ancoar “returned to positive territory at the beginning of 2021 and rose rapidly (+ 2.6% annually in September, + 1.7% acquired for the average change this year, provisional data ), will stabilize by the end of the year “. In detail: “it will settle on average at + 1.8% in 2021 (from -0.3% in 2020), with an upward revision of 0.6 points from the April scenario. In 2022 it is expected to fall slightly below this value, to + 1.4% on average, due to the gradual exhaustion of the temporary impact of the rise in oil prices “.
The words of Bonomi
“The guard must be kept high both to ensure that the ongoing rebound is high enough to bridge the gap caused by the 2020 recession, and to ensure that the growth rate of Italian GDP from 2022 onwards is solid and lasting. This is the real challenge for Italy“This was stated by the president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, presenting the Report.
“The Italian recovery – he underlined – is well underway but despite the positive outlook, the scenario presents some downside risks concerning various elements of uncertainty: from the evolution of infections to the important shortages of raw materials and semi-finished products and consequent pressures on the dynamics of prices “.
For Bonomi it is necessary “to return to growth at an annual rate of at least 1.5-2%, an achievable goal, equal to the average growth recorded between 1997 and 2007”.
“To achieve this goal – he explained – the PNRR is a historic opportunity to be exploited to the fullest, by volume of European resources, almost 40 billion of public spending per year on average or how to have an additional expansionary maneuver annually “.
For the leader of Confindustria, the budget maneuver must accompany the exit from the emergency phase, provide resources to support the energy-environmental transition, implement structural reforms, reduce the tax wedge and not introduce new taxes. “This year must be a maneuver that respects the path of reducing public debt accompany the country towards the exit from the economic and social crisis linked to the pandemic through the gradual exit from emergency measures and a careful selection of support interventions “.
The budget law, therefore, “must provide for resources to support the energy and environmental transition, as well as to implement the structural reforms that represent the key to sustainably strengthen the country’s growth potential”.
On the subject of tax reform “taxation on businesses and labor must be reduced by cutting the tax wedge, therefore not only interventions on Irpef to eliminate distortions and inequities, both vertical and horizontal existing in the levy on individuals, but also interventions on the system of taxation on corporate income, to make it more attractive than the current one
.