2023-12-28 16:30:01
The 28th Climate Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai (United Arab Emirates) engraved words in very crumbly marble. On Wednesday, December 13, the countries of the world agreed to set up a “transition towards an exit from fossils” (« transitioning away from fossil fuels »). No date has been put forward, no constraints are possible with these UN texts, but the leaders have raised a hope, that of putting an end to energy sources responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions.
In his speech, in front of all the other heads of state, Emmanuel Macron did not evade. He even got involved. “It seems that the top priority is for the most advanced countries to move away from fossil fuelshe declared, Friday December 1. And I want to tell you here, and these are not good words, but France has a plan. »
France therefore has a plan, and even planning, put in place by the government of Elisabeth Borne. This strategy should lead it to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to the 1990 level, hoping to be on the right track to then climb the immense step towards carbon neutrality in 2050. Logically, these trajectories should now be put on the agenda to integrate the words of COP28, that is to say detailing the decline in the consumption and production of fossil fuels until 2050.
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For the government, the conclusion of COP28 confirms France’s objectives reaffirmed by Mr. Macron in Dubai: an exit from coal in 2030, the end of oil in 2040-2045 and that of gas in 2050. But the sheet of road until these deadlines is not yet detailed by the General Secretariat for Ecological Planning (SGPE). The latter focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, sector by sector (for example going from 129 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent to 92 million in 2030 in the transport sector).
Titanic effort
The decline in the consumption of fossil products is induced, but not explained. The SGPE is therefore banking on a sharp increase in the sale of electric vehicles: 66% of new cars sold in 2030, compared to 13% in 2022. Concerning fossils, the SGPE has just published a table where it forecasts a decrease in the share of coal, gas and oil in the energy mix of around 38% in 2030. In the documents of the second national low carbon strategy, several curves also indicate the stages of consumption of these energies in 2030 and even in 2050 for oil and coal, without going into detail.
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