For the Austrian Defense Minister, a blackout is inevitable in Europe. In an interview given to the German daily Die Welt on December 29, Klaudia Tanner estimated that “the question is not whether the blackout will occur but when it will occur”. The fault of the war in Ukraine, of which she ignores “if she will ever see a winner”.
Tanner believes that European countries could face outages lasting several days. One “third of the citizens” of the Old Continent will meet “unable to take care of themselves” after the fourth day. The Austrian minister maintains that the probability of this failure occurring is very high…
“For Putin, attacks on the Western energy grid is a hybrid warfare tool. We should not pretend that this is a theory. We must prepare for blackouts in Europe”she added on December 27.
In Austria, the possibility has been taken very seriously for several years. “As of 2020, we have systematically started to raise Austrians’ awareness of the blackout. Today, the topic is on most people’s minds”, she said. The task falls to the Austrian Ministry of the Interior but also to the armed forces, the police, the fire brigade, civil defense organizations and the military who organize “regular joint exercises, sometimes involving schools”she continues.
“A war of attrition”
Klaudia Tanner says Austrians get “everywhere in public places there are small brochures which contain advice on what to do in the event of a power failure (…) We are doing poster campaigns, we have published a cookbook adapted to a power failure electricity and we had a big infotainment event where a power outage was simulated…I know there’s a fine line between raising awareness with a sense of proportion and stoking fears. But I think we’ve done pretty well so far”she believes.
After explaining the way in which the Austrian army prepares itself for blackout crises, she evokes the war in Ukraine. “It has become a war of attrition, which is being fought with great intensity and high casualties on both sides”. She bets on a “diminution” winter operations and “both sides are currently preparing for a new offensive in the spring”.
The Austrian Defense Minister has revealed that she agrees with the opinion of the American Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, that “Ukraine cannot win the war, i.e. reconquer all its regions, including Crimea, in the near future”. “It is important that the West continues to support Ukraine with all its strength (…) Without Western support, Ukraine would be lost”. Recalling that “the combat power of Ukraine has certainly been underestimated”she points out that “Moscow has enormous reserves of equipment and soldiers”.
“It is not clear if there will ever be a winner”
A war of which she does not see the outcome. “It is not clear if there will ever be a winner in this war”: Klaudia Tanner pleads in her interview for negotiations. She called on the international community to focus more on diplomacy to end the war. “It is important that there are talks in the background and that the focus is increasingly on diplomacy”she said.
The West, which has been supporting Ukraine militarily and financially for months, “must work with kyiv to know when to start negotiations”.
The use of diplomacy to end this conflict is increasingly requested. According to an IFOP survey and the JDDmore than two thirds of the French are in favor of a diplomatic resolution of the war in Ukraine.