Ford Motor reports third-quarter financial results after Wednesday’s closing bell in Detroit, with Wall Street bracing for a subdued print and closely watching whether supply snags and electric vehicle losses will jeopardize the automaker’s recently raised profit targets.
Wall Street expects Ford to post automotive revenue of $46.2 billion, alongside an adjusted earnings per share figure of 40 to 41 cents and an adjusted EBIT of $2.38 billion, per Bloomberg consensus estimates. Those anticipated figures point to a roughly 2% revenue decline compared to the same period last year, when the company recorded $47.19 billion in automotive revenue, net income of $2.4 billion, and adjusted earnings of 45 cents per share. For the upcoming figures, consensus points to a challenging year-over-year comparison metric, with Q3 normalized EPS expected at $0.4035 compared to the $0.45 prior-year actual, and Q3 revenue projected at $45.81 billion versus $50.53 billion a year earlier. Operating in an automotive industry reshaped by changing consumer preferences, electric vehicle development, manufacturing costs, and demand for trucks and commercial transportation, Ford faces market activity that also responds to broader macroeconomic shifts. Financing costs influence vehicle affordability, while fuel prices affect preferences for particular vehicle types.
Last quarter, Ford posted adjusted EPS of $0.42 against a $0.3463 consensus, with revenue reaching $48.30 billion to exceed the $45.80 billion estimate. However, overall U.S. sales in the third quarter fell 6.6% to 509,764 vehicles, a drop the company attributed to the planned phase-outs of the Escape and Lincoln Corsair models. Excluding those two vehicles, Ford noted that volume was essentially flat, though F-series truck sales still dipped 1.9% during the quarter. In terms of market performance ahead of the announcement, Ford shares are down about 8.5% year to date and have fallen 6.4% over the past month, heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $15.56 compared to the current share price.
Supplier Issues Cut F-150 Production in September
While the automaker has been working to steady its pickup truck manufacturing after months of earlier disruptions, a separate supply problem hit operations near the end of September. Ford canceled all production crews at its Dearborn Truck Plant for nearly a week, while the Kansas City Assembly plant also cut shifts.
The manufacturing slowdown is reflected in output numbers. Production of the F-150 dropped from more than 57,500 units in August to less than 43,000 units in September. Ford characterized the stoppage as a short-term supplier issue unrelated to aluminum
and insisted that the financial hit remains containable within the full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance.
Novelis aluminum costs have also pressured margins, with Ford absorbing about $800 million year-to-date and anticipating roughly $1.5 billion in total for the full year. Despite these headwinds, CFO Sherry House stayed positive in a net $1 billion EBIT improvement, heavily weighted to the second half.
Model E Losses Widen as EV Sales Plunge
The struggles facing Ford’s electric vehicle division remain stark. Q3 EV sales plunged 80%, extending a downturn that started following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit last year. The company’s Model e EV business unit is projected to lose approximately $4 billion for the full year, with third-quarter losses expected to widen to $1.17 billion on revenue of $1.12 billion, up from a $919 million loss in the previous quarter.
In July, management disclosed that the Model e outlook incorporated about $1 billion in added spending dedicated to its Universal EV platform and Ford Energy, primarily concentrated in the second half of the year. To counter the sluggish adoption of pricier EVs, Ford is pinning future electric vehicle turnaround hopes on its upcoming Fathom EV pickup, featuring a starting price of $28,350.
Ford Pro Division Drives Company Profits
Amid EV losses and factory stoppages, the commercial-focused Ford Pro division functions as the automaker’s primary profit engine. Second-half Pro EBIT is targeted between $3.6 billion and $4.1 billion.
We expect to end the year with our full recovery to 2025 revenue run rate and Super Duty availability being aligned with demand.
Alicia Boler Davis, Ford Pro President
Last quarter, management boosted its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of $10 billion to $11 billion, up from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, while lifting adjusted free cash flow projections to $6 billion to $7 billion. Equity analysts currently project full-year adjusted EBIT at $10.52 billion, placing it in the upper half of the company’s forecasted range. For the full year 2026, consensus expectations point to an EPS of $1.8425 compared to a prior-year actual of $1.09, and revenue of $175.24 billion versus $187.28 billion.
Options traders are pricing in roughly a 6% to 7% share price movement in either direction following Wednesday’s announcement. With the stock down about 8.5% year-to-date and trading near $11.81, Wall Street’s primary concern centers less on the immediate Q3 figures and more on whether management will maintain its guidance or offer a cautious outlook for 2027.