2024-02-29 11:31:22
As we approach the end of February, speculation about the inflation outlook for this month is already in play. Bancolombia, through its economic research, has presented an analysis that suggests continued disinflation, projecting an annual figure of 7.54%, driven mainly by the positive performance in food and beverages.
According to the bank’s estimates, inflation in February is expected to reduce to 0.90% monthly, thus marking a constant decline in the pace of price growth. If this projection is confirmed, it would be the lowest rate since February 2022, highlighting the stability in food and the moderation in regulated prices.
Bancolombia’s analysis indicates that the correction in food prices will be the main driving force behind this disinflation, with a decrease of 1.37% annually in this item, the most favorable figure since August 2018. Factors such as lower prices of inputs, earlier harvests and, until now, limited impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on agricultural productivity, contribute to this positive scenario.
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In terms of core inflation, excluding food, the analysis suggests a drop to 9.12% annually, supported by the favorable evolution of goods prices, with annual inflation of 4.88%. This performance, if confirmed, would be the lowest annual rate since December 2021, driven by the weakness in demand for goods and favorable conditions in the exchange rate.
However, upward pressures persist in services, and to a lesser extent in regulated prices. Although the end of the increases in gasoline prices is expected to contribute to a further correction, the high costs in energy rates due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon could keep inflation high in this sector, projected at 15 .46%.
The report also highlights some potential risks, including the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, indexation and the lack of clarity in the Acpm price adjustment process, which could limit the fall in inflation. The Colombian economy, in a complex global and local context, continues to be the object of attention and analysis by experts and market observers.
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