Valdez’s Next Pitch: Why the Orioles Make the Most Sense
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As Framber Valdez becomes a more prominent free-agent target, a closer look at team needs and defensive strengths points to Baltimore as the ideal landing spot.
- With Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez, and Michael King already off the board, interest in Valdez is expected to surge.
- Valdez’s ground-ball tendencies make a strong infield defense crucial for maximizing his impact.
- The Orioles offer a unique combination of need, defensive prowess, and a favorable ballpark environment.
- Baltimore faces a higher percentage of left-handed hitters, playing to Valdez’s strengths.
The free-agent market for Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has been surprisingly deliberate, perhaps due to his age, accumulated innings, the qualifying offer attached to his contract, and a controversial incident with his catcher late last season. However, with several top starting pitchers now unavailable, expect bidding for Valdez to intensify quickly.
A Ground-Ball Specialist Needs the Right Defense
Valdez can bolster any team seeking a reliable, top-of-the-rotation arm, and he’s been most frequently linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Cubs in recent reports. While the Cubs’ recent signing of Alex Bregman might signal a pause in major free-agent acquisitions, and the Mets have historically shied away from long-term commitments to starting pitchers—though the addition of Bo Bichette doesn’t address their rotation’s uncertainty—all four remain potential suitors.
Valdez isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher; he’s a ground-ball machine who thrives when his defense is strong. His success hinges more on the quality of the fielders behind him than a pitcher like Cease. Since 2021, Valdez has generated a remarkable 62% ground-ball rate, ranking fourth among qualified pitchers. He also leads all of Major League Baseball in double plays induced during that same period.
The Cubs and the Orioles: A Defensive Matchup
To truly unlock Valdez’s potential, a team must prioritize fielding a robust infield defense. Currently, the Cubs stand out among the main contenders in this regard, boasting an elite group of infielders including Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw, and the newly acquired Alex Bregman.
Last season, the Cubs’ infield defense excelled, posting a +11 Outs Above Average (OAA) – 12th in MLB – and a +66 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), the second-best mark in the league. The Mets were the next closest contender in OAA with -3, while the Giants followed in DRS with +39.
Lefties and Lineups: The AL East Advantage
Which team offers Valdez the best “neighborhood” to pitch in? While Valdez doesn’t exhibit significant platoon splits throughout his career, he performs better against left-handed hitters (17.6% K-BB%, .223 opponent batting average) than right-handed batters (14.1 K-BB%, .230 opponent batting average).
The composition of lineups varies year to year, but there were substantial differences in the number of left-handed batters faced by teams in different divisions last season. The American League East saw nearly double the number of left-handed plate appearances (13,006) compared to the American League West (7,524).
The Orioles faced the most left-handed batters of any of Valdez’s potential destinations, with 2,819 plate appearances. They were followed by the Giants (2,740) and the Mets (2,734), while the Cubs saw the fewest with 2,473. This means Orioles pitchers were 14% more likely to face a left-handed batter than a Cubs pitcher last season, and the AL East is expected to remain a left-handed-heavy division.
Ballpark Factors and Rotation Needs
The teams vying for Valdez generally play in favorable pitching environments. Wrigley Field (Cubs) and Oracle Park (Giants) are tied for 26th in Baseball Savant’s three-year rolling ballpark factors measure. Citi Field (Mets) and Camden Yards (Orioles) have also consistently ranked among the more pitcher-friendly parks in recent seasons.
Camden Yards presents a unique case. Adjustments made last season, bringing the fences closer, have restored it to a hitter-friendly ballpark, ranking sixth-most favorable for hitters. However, the park exhibits a dramatic split in performance, being the seventh-best venue for left-handed batters but only 23rd for right-handed hitters.
When considering only right-handed batters – whom left-handed pitchers will face more often – Wrigley Field trails only T-Mobile Park in suppressing offensive performance, slightly ahead of Oracle Park (96 to 97).
The Verdict: Baltimore is the Best Fit
Looking at rotation quality, the need for a top-tier starter, and overall fit, the Giants appear to be the weakest link. As of January 15, FanGraphs.com’s depth charts projected the rotations as follows: Mets 11.8 (17th), Orioles 11.5 (18th), Cubs 11.2 (19th), and Giants 10.4 (24th).
The Giants currently project only one left-handed pitcher in their rotation, Robbie Ray, and while they’ve added Tyler Mahle, they could still benefit from another established arm to pitch alongside Logan Webb. The Mets have internal pitching prospects like Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, and hope for more innings from Sean Manaea, but may seek to bolster their rotation to compete with the Dodgers. The Orioles acquired Shane Baz from Tampa Bay, but he’s unproven, and they are the only contender without a pitcher who reached a 3 fWAR level last season.
Ultimately, Valdez would benefit any team, but the combination of a challenging division for opposing lefties, a strong infield defense, and a ballpark that favors left-handed hitters makes Baltimore the most logical destination. The Orioles have already made significant additions to their lineup with Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, and adding Baz to the rotation. But to truly contend with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, they need further reinforcement in their starting pitching.
