2023-10-09 11:19:22
Couple Elsa Bembaron
Published 10 hours ago, Updated 7 hours ago
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The situation in France is reassuring at the dawn of this second winter since the start of the war in Ukraine. But caution remains in order.
France is better prepared than last winter to stock up on gas, and even export it to European neighbors. These are the conclusions drawn this Monday by the gas transmission network managers GRTgaz and Teréga. However, tensions remain possible at the end of winter in the event of a late cold snap. It was necessary to rethink the entire gas supply chain, while Europe lost 75% of Russian deliveries in two years. Ship deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have offset those that were historically made via gas pipelines from Russia. At the same time, regasification capacities, the necessary step to inject gas into the pipes, were increased by 22%.
«Analyzes show that this year the French network has the capacity to ensure the necessary supplies to fuel consumption and exports, including in the event of a cold winter.”, estimate the two main managers in their “outlook for the French gas system for winter 2023-2024“. Three scenarios are considered, ranging from a mild winter to a season marked by cold. The latter logically presents the highest rate of risk of tensions on gas supplies.
Also read: “Cape Ann” soon ready to inject gas into the French network
European stocks 97% full
The stocks contain the equivalent of approximately a third of the annual gas consumption in France. The French are 95% full and those in Europe 97%. Participating in the balance of the system which involves: “sustained LNG imports, prudent storage management as well as maintaining sobriety at levels similar to those observed last winter“. France reduced its gas consumption by 14.3% (climate-adjusted data) between August 1, 2022 and July 31, 2023 compared to the same period of 2018-2019. “Manufacturers have changed their processes in response to the rise in gas prices last winter. These gains are acquired, they are sources of savings for them», Estimates Thierry Trouvé, confident about the ability of consumers to remain economical.
And this even if prices are lower than last year. A level has been established around 50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), far from the peak of August 2022 at more than 300 euros and last winter’s prices at 95 euros per MWh. Future prices on the wholesale gas markets even stand at between 30 and 40 euros per MWh, illustrating the confidence of players in supply capacities. But even at these levels, prices remain 3 to 4 times higher than before the crisis, continuing to be a strong incentive to make savings.
The Europeans have also developed new LNG import capacities, with the development of FSRUs, floating units dedicated to regasification. Germany now has three, Italy two, Finland one, to name just these countries. The one in France, located in Haver and operated by TotalEnergies in Le Havre, should be put into operation this week. In addition, gas entry capacities via Spain have been increased, making it possible to inject an additional volume of up to 6 TWh over the winter, according to managers.
France is also betting on the development of its biomethane sector, which allows it to produce its own gas on its territory. “Currently it is around 11 TWh, it is still low, but it is higher than the objectives set for 2023 by the previous multi-annual energy program. The sector estimates that it will be able to supply 20% of French gas consumption in 2030,” adds Thierry Trouvé, recalling that Denmark is already at 40%. a way of also illustrating the diversity of alternatives to Russian gas imports.
Finally, to avoid any dependence on a single country, French gas suppliers are keen to diversify their supplies.
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