2024-02-07 14:03:51
After a catastrophic 2022, production has increased across the board. France has exported electrons.
Forgotten the year 2022, its fears of power cuts due to lack of sufficient production capacity? Not completely. If the assessment drawn up by the electricity network operator (RTE) is positive for 2023, this does not mean that all the risks are behind us. Security of supply seems to have returned, but prices remain at levels well above those of the previous decade and could still experience significant variations. “ The structure of the electricity system is no longer the same as in 2010 », summarizes Thomas Veyrenc, general director in charge of the economy and foresight at RTE. The specter of a red Ecowatt has moved away, but it has not disappeared forever.
In detail, electricity consumption fell by 6.9% in 2023 compared to the 2012-2019 average, in weather-corrected data, to stand at 445 terawatt hours (TWh). “ In gross consumption, the figure is even lower with consumption of 438.3 TWh, notably because 2023 was the second hottest year on record », adds Maïté Jauréguy-Naudin, Director of Statistics and RTE Data. For the record, consumption in corrected data was 465 TWh in 2021 and 480 TWh on average in the 2010s.The decline is partly attributable to the rise in electricity prices, particularly in industry where the effect of the economic situation is very markedadds Thomas Veyrenc. But part of the reductions made are now largely anchored in habits ».
Also read: Jordan Bardella: “Faced with rising electricity prices, we must make France an energy paradise again”
On the other hand, electricity production in France increased by 11% between 2022 and 2023, reaching 494.3 TWh last year. All the indicators have returned to green and the improvement is not limited to nuclear power. In detail, nuclear electricity production increased from 279 TWh in 2022 to 320.4 TWh in 2023. A clear improvement, but a level which remains lower than that of 2020, before the start of EDF’s industrial difficulties linked to to stress corrosion. “ Nuclear production has started to recover, but it is still far from its historical levels. We have to go back to 1992 – excluding 2022 – when the park was not yet at full strength to return to such a level », Illustrates Thomas Veyrenc.
The production of hydraulic electricity has also clearly increased, a key point. 2022 had been the worst year since 1976, renowned for the drought that the country then experienced. Last year, dams provided 18% more over twelve months, or 58.8 TWh. “ There was both more precipitation, especially from April, and careful management of hydraulic stocks », explains Maïté Jauréguy-Naudin. “ One of the most striking results is the surge in wind production, to 50.7 TWh compared to 38.6 TWh a year earlier.adds Thomas Veyrenc. The level of wind production is close to that of hydraulic power. As the park will continue to develop, we are not far from the moment when this will become the second source of electricity production in France “. However, wind electricity production remains subject to wind. The random effects of the weather are partly offset by the development of wind and solar farms. Finally, solar electricity production increased from 18.6 TWh to 21.5 TWh.
Reduced CO2 emissions
The share of fossil fuels therefore declines mechanically. Gas has returned to the volume of the years before the energy crisis, i.e. 30 TWh. As for coal, which is highly publicized, it now only represents 1.6 thousandths of French electricity production, or 0.8 TWh. “ A few years ago when a coal-fired power plant operated 3000 to 4000 hours per year, this was normal. Now, when one starts there is a press alert! smiles Thomas Veyrenc. However, the exit from coal is almost effective: there are only two power plants left in France».
As a result of this improvement in production and the drop in consumption, France once again became an exporter of electricity, with 50.1 TWh sold. The country is returning to its levels of the previous decade but far from its absolute record at 77 TWh exported in 2002. With more nuclear and renewables, the CO2 emissions necessary for electricity production have fallen by 32% over one year. , to stand at 23.6 million tonnes of CO2. In other words, one kWh of electricity produced in France emits 32 g of CO2 on average, which is ten times less than in Germany.
Also read: Germany: CO2 emissions at their lowest in more than 70 years according to a study
In 2022, three crises overlapped in Europe: low French nuclear production, a drought in southern Europe which caused hydropower to decline, and a global increase in gas prices. “Faced with these three uncorrelated crises that happened at the same time, the system demonstrated resilience, even if prices increased. And we emerged from the crisis faster than we could have imagined», underlines Thomas Veyrenc.
Since then, prices have fallen on the wholesale market; but they remain very volatile. It would only take a little for it to start rising again, like a new increase in gas prices. Finally, the drop in electricity consumption could only be temporary. In an energy transition scenario, it will increase to replace that linked to fossil fuels which represent 60% of our overall consumption. RTE is banking on an increase which could begin between 2025 and 2030, depending on the scenarios chosen.
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