2023-11-15 07:08:03
“Many Taiwanese wonder if Joe Biden will not seek compromises with Xi Jinping at all costs to the detriment of Taiwan,” confides Paul Jobin, researcher at the Institute of Sociology of the Academia Sinica in Taipei. If this sociologist, who has been living in Taiwan for years, is convinced that the United States will come to his aid in the event of a Chinese military attack, he is concerned about the “timing” of this meeting, “a few months before an American presidential election which could see the victory of Donald Trump, from which the People’s Republic of China would fully benefit.” Because Joe Biden still maintains a firm stance towards Beijing.
For several days, Taiwanese television channels have been broadcasting half-hearted reports on relations between Beijing and Washington, in particular on the last Xi-Biden meeting, a year ago, in Bali, on the sidelines of the G20, with emphasis on relations which still remain very tense between the two superpowers. And to wonder about the substance of the discussions which will concern Taiwan, while the island is in the middle of the electoral campaign for the presidential election on January 13.
For the moment, the outcome of this election remains very uncertain. Leading the polls, Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) currently in power, is in favor of maintaining the status quo: neither independence nor unification. The Kuomintang opposition (KMT), more favorable to a rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China, is active and seeks to establish political alliances which could swing the outcome of the election. On site, many are wondering if the election will not trigger new tensions with Beijing, which claims sovereignty over this autonomous democracy and has not ruled out seizing it by force.
Growing Chinese pressures
While Chinese military exercises have increased since the visit of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island in August 2022, the American president plans to express his concern to Xi Jinping about Taiwan. “We are concerned by the unprecedented, dangerous and provocative intensification of military activities (Chinese) around Taiwan”, indicates in a press release the spokesperson for the White House, Karine Jean-Pierre, published on the eve of this meeting. These Chinese military maneuvers are putting a strain on the defenses of the Taiwanese army, always on maximum alert. From January 2024, the duration of military service will increase to twelve months, instead of the current four.
During the San Francisco meeting, President Biden intends to signal to his Chinese counterpart that the United States is not fooled by his destabilizing maneuvers and will warn of possible interference by Beijing in the presidential election in Taiwan. “For months, Beijing has engaged in intense psychological warfare in Taiwan, deciphers Paul Jobin. China is trying to influence presidential candidates and public opinion through media and social media infiltration. »
Fear of strategic encirclement
This Wednesday, Joe Biden will reiterate the American position on the question of the island: Washington “does not support Taiwan independence.” Beijing nevertheless remains convinced, at least in the speech, that Washington still supports the “Taiwanese separatists”. A position that China considers unacceptable and which, in its eyes, justifies its military maneuvers around the island. In return, Washington is accelerating the establishment of regional military alliances to contain China: tripartite military pact with Australia and the United Kingdom, but also between South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.
So many rapprochements that China sees as a strategic encirclement aimed at containing its military expansion in the Asia-Pacific. Of which Taiwan would, without a doubt, be the first target.
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