Global markets are bracing for potential turbulence as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt energy supplies. The crisis deepened Thursday with a direct Iranian attack on Israel, following days of heightened alert after Iran announced a halt to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments. Around 300 oil tankers are currently stalled in the region, according to reports, raising fears of a significant energy supply shock.
The situation is further complicated by recent attacks on tankers in the Gulf and China’s moves to limit fuel exports, contributing to rising prices. Concerns are also mounting over natural gas supplies, with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting a potential halt to remaining gas flows to Europe and Qatar declaring force majeure on liquefied natural gas shipments, as reported by عالم تسعة. These developments are fueling anxieties about a broader energy crisis and its potential impact on global inflation.
Escalating Conflict and Market Reaction
The conflict took a dramatic turn Wednesday with reports that a U.S. Submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, resulting in at least 80 casualties. Simultaneously, NATO defenses intercepted and destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile launched toward Turkey. Thursday’s direct attack on Israel, involving a barrage of missiles, prompted widespread shelter-in-place orders for millions of citizens, marking the sixth day of the escalating conflict. Efforts to de-escalate the situation and halt potential U.S. Retaliatory strikes in Washington were unsuccessful, according to reports.
Against this backdrop, gold and futures contracts have experienced a “panic sell-off,” with both contracts falling below key support levels, according to analysis of market trends. The immediate concern centers on the potential for a significant disruption to oil supplies, given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. The BBC reported in March 2026 that between 2020 and 2022, the volume of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased by 2.7 million barrels per day. The BBC’s report highlights the strait’s critical role in global trade, particularly for energy.
Technical Levels to Watch: Gold
Analyzing gold futures, the contracts opened Thursday at $5176.80, reaching a high of $5204.25 and a low of $5090, currently trading at $5113. Traders are closely watching the 20-day moving average at $5091 as immediate support. A break below this level could trigger a further decline toward the 50-day moving average at $4869.80. Further breaches could witness the price test the 100-day moving average ($4518) and the 200-day moving average ($4002) next week.
On an hourly chart, gold futures have remained below the key 200-day moving average ($5188) since February 3, 2026. After a struggle to remain above $5175 in the last seven hours, the contracts finally fell below the critical support level of $5127.79 and are currently attempting to regain it. This suggests a potential acceleration of the downward trend tonight, potentially testing the low of $5091.
Technical Levels to Watch: Silver
Silver futures opened Thursday at $84.225, reaching a high of $85.730 and a low of $80.662, currently trading at $82.460, slightly below the immediate resistance at the 20-day moving average ($84.440). The 9-day moving average ($84.978) is poised to move below the 20-day moving average, forming a bearish crossover in today’s session.
A sell-off could push silver futures below the immediate support at the 50-day moving average ($79.375). A break below this level could lead to tests of the next significant support levels at the 100-day moving average ($69.316) and the 200-day moving average ($54.532).
On the hourly chart, silver futures are already trading in a bearish zone where the 9-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages ($84.730) have all moved below the 200-day moving average, forming a bearish crossover, while the 100-day moving average is also trending downward, breaking through the 200-day moving average. Currently, silver futures are struggling even below the 9-day moving average ($83.476) and could fall further if they continue to move below the direct support at $79.778.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any positions in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
The coming days will be critical as markets assess the extent of the disruption to energy supplies and the potential for further escalation in the Middle East. The next key development to watch will be any official statements regarding the status of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and any diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
What are your thoughts on the current market volatility? Share your insights and analysis in the comments below.
