The United States has welcomed renewed international commitment to a multinational security mission aimed at stabilizing Haiti, even as deep-seated political and institutional challenges cast a long shadow over the prospect of credible elections. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit on Wednesday, highlighted expected contributions from Canada and Japan to the Kenya-led force, expressing hope it could create conditions for a return to constitutional rule in the crisis-stricken nation.
However, the path forward remains fraught with obstacles. Years of political instability, exacerbated by gang violence that now controls an estimated 90 percent of the capital, Port-au-Prince, have eroded the foundations of Haitian governance. Experts warn that simply deploying a security force, while necessary, is insufficient to address the root causes of the crisis and enable a legitimate electoral process. The situation demands a comprehensive approach that tackles not only gang activity but likewise systemic corruption, a weakened police force, and a lack of basic infrastructure.
A History of Instability and Gang Influence
The current crisis is not a sudden eruption, but rather the culmination of decades of political and economic turmoil. The roots of Haiti’s gang problem run deep, tracing back to the authoritarian rule of François Duvalier in the mid-20th century. During his dictatorship, the Volontaires de la Sécurité Nationale (VSN) operated as a paramilitary force to suppress dissent. This pattern of state-sponsored armed groups continued in the 2000s, with former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide mobilizing armed loyalists known as “chimères.” These groups, initially intended as political tools, gradually gained autonomy, establishing territorial control and financial interests.
The withdrawal of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) in 2017, following a 13-year deployment after Aristide’s ouster, left a critical security vacuum. According to political science professor Roromme Chantal of the Université de Moncton, MINUSTAH “replaced the Haitian National Police instead of building its capacity,” leaving the force ill-equipped to maintain order once the mission departed. This withdrawal coincided with growing public anger over the diversion of billions of dollars from the PetroCaribe oil programme, triggering widespread protests beginning in 2018. Armed groups exploited the resulting instability, expanding their influence and control over key areas of the country.
Electoral Challenges and the Issue of Impunity
Even with a bolstered security presence, the prospect of free and fair elections in Haiti appears distant. A fundamental challenge is the lack of a credible electoral registry. “There is no credible electoral registry, no functioning political party system and no real capacity to organise a vote that would be recognised as legitimate,” explained Eduardo Gamarra, a professor at Florida International University. The displacement of over a million people due to gang violence, as reported by the International Organization for Migration, presents a logistical nightmare, as displaced citizens would need to return home to participate.
Beyond the technical hurdles, the issue of impunity remains a significant obstacle. “The United States, Canada and the United Nations have sanctioned prominent Haitian political and business figures accused of financing armed groups,” Chantal noted, “Yet none of them have been prosecuted.” Without accountability for those who fund and arm these groups, dismantling the system of violence will prove exceedingly difficult.
A regional agreement reached on Monday recognized Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as head of the executive branch and outlined plans to restore security, organize elections, and assist victims of gang violence. However, the agreement notably lacks a clear deadline for Fils-Aimé’s departure from office, raising questions about the timeline for a fully elected government.
‘Haiti Fatigue’ and Uncertain Futures
The international community’s renewed focus on Haiti comes amid a growing sense of “Haiti fatigue,” as described by Gamarra, reflecting waning appetite among donors and governments to commit substantial resources without a clear political roadmap. At the same time, armed groups have become increasingly wealthy and autonomous, even recruiting children from impoverished communities where schools are closed and opportunities are scarce. Some gangs reportedly distribute food and cash to reinforce local loyalty and project power through social media, further complicating the situation.
Looking ahead, Gamarra suggests two possible trajectories: sustained force to dismantle the gangs or, more controversially, the potential for some armed actors to seek political integration. However, Chantal cautions that security operations alone, or political integration without accountability, risk perpetuating the cycle of violence. He emphasizes the need to strengthen the police, invest in youth, and hold those who finance violence accountable as essential steps toward meaningful change.
The Kenyan-led mission, authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 2793 in October 2025, faces a challenging task. As Alex Dupuy, retired sociology professor emeritus at Wesleyan University, pointed out, the Haitian police are under-equipped and lack the firepower to effectively combat the gangs. He also expressed concerns about the Kenyan forces’ lack of familiarity with Haiti and the language barrier, which could limit their effectiveness outside the capital.
The situation in Haiti remains deeply precarious. The next key development will be the full deployment of the multinational security support force and its initial impact on gang activity in Port-au-Prince. Continued international support, coupled with a commitment to addressing the underlying political and economic issues, will be crucial to charting a path toward stability and a legitimate democratic future for the nation.
If you or someone you grasp is struggling with the emotional impact of violence or displacement, resources are available. You can find support through the International Rescue Committee: https://www.rescue.org/
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