2024-03-16 21:14:07
Above all, was the statement grist to the mill of the hardliners in the Kremlin?
Absolutely. Putin now finally felt that his nation was being systematically humiliated over and over again, and in combination with his inferiority complex, he then turned to more extreme policies. Of course, Putin could also have increased Russia’s importance in the world by creating a vibrant economy that could compete with the West. Unfortunately, Putin didn’t know how to do that. Accordingly, he resorted to the KGB scripts of the 1970s and 1980s.
So disinformation and undermining instead of cooperation and coexistence with the West?
Since then, Putin has been trying to make Russia great again by damaging democracies in the West. There are most likely still many undiscovered ways of Russian financing of extreme right and left parties and politicians in Europe. We still need to find out more about this.
What is Putin’s greatest strength?
Putin is a kind of political chameleon. He can appear strong and self-confident, but also conciliatory and submissive. When his predecessor Boris Yeltsin and his family came under fire for corruption in 1999, Putin presented himself as a savior. He told everyone what they wanted to hear – and they believed him.
And what is Putin’s greatest weakness?
He is very bad at operating in times of extreme crisis. He has demonstrated this on countless occasions, and then Putin appears paralyzed. When the Russian submarine Kursk sank in the Barents Sea in 2000, he disappeared from public view and Putin didn’t know what to do. This behavior has not changed: we have credible intelligence reports that Putin initially disappeared last year when Prigozhin mutinied. There were no instructions from the Kremlin to the security chiefs in the regions; no one knew what to do.
So everyone preferred to stay quiet until Moscow responded again?
This is how Putin’s hesitation made it possible for the Wagner mercenaries to advance towards Moscow in the first place. Do you remember the images of Putin from the first months of the 2022 war, when things went anything but according to plan for the Russian army? You could see the psychological pressure on Putin, you could see that he was in almost physical pain.
Both are likely to have diminished since Russia has gained the advantage on the Ukrainian front – and Putin has finally gotten rid of his biggest opponent, Alexei Navalny. Why did Navalny have to die at this point?
We still don’t know how and why it happened. On the one hand, Navalny spent almost a year in solitary confinement in prison camps, but on the other hand, he looked relatively healthy the day before his death. It is possible that Putin feels so safe at the moment that he does not fear any consequences for removing Navalny.
Isn’t that the case?
Putin may have gone too far. Because after Navalny’s end it becomes clear that the Russian opposition did not die with him. Tens of thousands of people came to Navalny’s funeral, defying the enormous police presence and some even chanted “No to war.” Some participants told my colleagues on site that they felt alive – and no longer alone – for the first time in years.
Navalny lives on in people’s memories. We saw this in the lively attendance at his funeral, and we are now seeing it in the calls from his widow Yulia Navalnaya to continue the protest.
Especially on election days?
Navalny and his team planned this very cleverly. People are expected to protest at the voting booths during the presidential election at 12 p.m. After all, who wants to arrest people who show up to vote? Images of mass arrests on the day Putin is re-elected are unlikely to please the Kremlin.
So is there hope for the Russian opposition?
The large turnout at Navalny’s funeral undermines the myth that the entire Russian population is rallying behind Putin. That is clearly not the case. For every person who was at the funeral, there are thousands or tens of thousands who were too scared to go. Even though they believe in the same things as Navalny. So there is still a large part of Russian society that is against the Putin regime and the war.
You said it: the majority of these people remain silent, while the elite side with Putin. What now?
There will be no uprising that could directly threaten Putin. I think something like that is unlikely. But there is still hope.
Shouldn’t Western countries make much more use of this opportunity?
The West must finally pull itself together, adequately arm Ukraine and thus deny Putin victory. Because if Putin wins, it will strengthen his legitimacy and his regime. Then the Kremlin begins looking for new targets, be it in the Baltics or elsewhere. Russia needs a serious defeat – this is the only way to prevent this scenario.
In Germany in particular, there is great fear of Putin’s end because an unpredictable successor could move into the Kremlin. What do you think of it?
Putin already represents a very aggressive position. The result of his replacement does not automatically mean the establishment of an even more radical ruler. No, if Putin’s legitimacy is tarnished by the loss of territory in Ukraine, progressive elements within the security services are more likely to take action.
As was the case in the final phase of the Soviet Union?
Yes. These would most likely try to put Russia back on the path to integration with the West. Not because they want to bow to the Western world order, but because they recognize that Russia can only compete globally if it is integrated into the West.
Wouldn’t hardliners like Patrushev resist this decisively?
The hawks would bear the blame for a defeat in Ukraine and would therefore be delegitimized.
Now Putin wants to be confirmed as president with a high level of approval; the Kremlin wants to see 80 percent of the vote for the incumbent.
The election is virtually a public referendum on the war. Putin wants a signal that the Russians are fully behind him. The Kremlin is actually worried – it shows.
Ms. Belton, thank you very much for the interview.