A brief televised moment, which gained a lot of resonance on social media in Lebanon, expressed the state of the country that went to the parliamentary elections this week in the shadow of ongoing chaos: Akar. She asks him about the future of Lebanon, he starts talking about hope and renewal, and then shots are heard. The interviewer leaps in fear, the politician looks at the parties angrily and mumbles in disappointment: “Ya Allah, ya Allah.”
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah delivered three speeches in an attempt to persuade Lebanese to put the right ballot papers to him. In Syria.
Another point that was supposed to work in Hezbollah’s favor was the resignation of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, the leader of the Sunni sect and Nasrallah’s eternal rival. Al-Hariri also called on his party members, al-Mustaqbal, to boycott the election.
Despite all this, at the end of the vote count it became clear that although Hezbollah and Amal managed to retain their number of seats in parliament, its political allies failed. In the previous elections in 2018, the bloc led by Hezbollah achieved 75 of the 128 seats in the Lebanese parliament – a majority that gave them political control over the land of cedars. The Hezbollah bloc’s strength has now been reduced to 63 seats, compared to 65 for the opposing bloc.
Christian leader Samir Jaja’s party, the Lebanese Forces, is now the largest, with 21 seats. On the other hand, the “free patriotic current,” Jubran Basil’s party that made an alliance with Hezbollah, dropped from 33 to 17 seats. The image of Samir Jaja and his wife, a member of parliament herself embracing after the results were published went viral and symbolized the change that the Lebanese are hoping for: less religion and Iranian influence, more freedom, and especially the restoration of the country’s economy.
The “Progressive Socialist Party” led by Druze leader Walid Junblatt, who is considered an opponent of Hezbollah, retained its power with eight seats; His main joy was the ouster of his Druze rival Talal Arslan, an ally of Hezbollah, who was forced to resign from his seat in parliament after 30 years. In addition to the major parties, a number of independent parties entered parliament that grew out of a protest that has arisen in recent years following the dire economic situation.
During Election Day there were many cases of violence between the rival camps. The networks published photos from polling stations filled by Hezbollah members with fake notes, next to polling stations that were shut down due to power outages.
In the 2018 elections, after a Hezbollah victory and a majority in parliament, joy in the organization skyrocketed. Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Quds Force, was quick to declare that “Hezbollah has turned from a resistance organization into a political force set up by a resistance government in Lebanon.” Less than two years after that statement, Suleimani was assassinated by the United States in Iraq.
The barrier of fear is broken
Lebanon is in the worst economic, political and social crisis since the civil war in the 1980s. According to the World Bank, its economy has plummeted since the mid-19th century. Gross domestic product has plunged from $ 55 billion to $ 20 billion in recent years. Rising poverty, the difficulty of obtaining food and medicine and the severe disruptions in the supply of electricity led Lebanese citizens in late 2019 to mass protests and riots. The fear barrier was broken, and protesters shouted condemnation of government corruption and against Hezbollah, which uses their country as an Iranian outpost. Now they have expressed their hostility to Hezbollah in a protest vote, which many Shiites have also joined.
During the election campaign, Hezbollah opponents released a video showing the organization’s activists in the campaign, holding Hezbollah flags. In the background was the statement: “Hezbollah is preparing for the elections but there is not a single Lebanese flag.” Another video shows a vehicle belonging to Hezbollah and Amal operatives, with a rocket launcher next to them. On the other hand, Hezbollah tried to portray their rivals as allies of Lebanon’s enemies. “They were sent by Israel and the United States,” accused Muhammad Raed, a Hezbollah MP.
The Lebanese foreign minister, Christian leader Jubran Basil, who has made an alliance with Hezbollah, has in the past treated Israel positively and told al-Mayadin that “Lebanon has no ideological problem with Israel. It does not oppose Israel’s security.” He later denied the statement and claimed that his words had been taken out of context. Now, before the election, Basil has stated that “whoever votes for the rival forces is voting for ISIS and Israel.”
Lebanese singer Alyssa responded to this statement with contempt: “I do not believe what comes out of his mouth. Although Israel is an enemy to me, they did not do to us what Hezbollah and the government did to us in Lebanon.” In an interview with the Lebanese MTV network, she expressed the Lebanese’s anger at Hezbollah and the ruling camp that brought Lebanon to me. “Israel is an enemy that can harm us, but Hezbollah and the rulers of Lebanon are not called Zionists, they are called Lebanese.”
The famous singer, whose wealth and popularity allow her to express herself freely and be used here by many Lebanese, also addressed the issue of weapons in the hands of Hezbollah. “How can one give control of the country to a party that has weapons? Democracy does not go with weapons, intimidation and threat. If there is a party that is politically weak but has weapons, it remains strong and threatening, and it threatens the Lebanese and democracy.”
According to Lebanese commentator Nadim Katish, “Hezbollah tried to bring Shiite voters to the polls, declaring that these elections would prove the organization’s legitimacy of the organization. “On a crisis among Shiites, many of whom have voted to protest against it.”
The Lebanese election process is forcing politicians from different streams to cooperate. In a few months, the politically decentralized parliament will be required to elect a new government and a new president. This will be a difficult task after an election campaign characterized by violence and mutual shootings between Shiites, Christians, Sunnis and Druze. Despite his political weakness, Hezbollah will not allow for real change and will not give up its weapons. The world is waiting for the formation of a new government in Lebanon to inject budgets for the rehabilitation of the country; In the current situation, Lebanon will find it difficult to emerge from the crisis in which it is immersed.
From the Israeli angle, the crisis in Lebanon draws Hezbollah’s attention and makes it difficult for it to confront its neighbor to the south. In the current reality, it can be said that the internal conflicts in Lebanon serve the Israeli interest.
Iyad (pseudonym), a key activist in the Hezbollah opposition camp and a supporter of Samir Jajah, is pleased with the election results. “In recent days we have worked very hard,” he said in a phone call from Beirut. “Everyone in Lebanon is suffering from poverty and wants a revolution that will lead to the end of this corrupt regime. The Lebanese have voted to start dismantling the current reality of a state within a state controlled by Hezbollah and Iran. Veteran candidates representing the Syrian government have disappeared from the map. “Hezbollah and Iranian influence must be integrated. We can not deal with them alone. We need a combination of forces from our brothers in the Gulf, the Europeans, the Americans and your guys to force Hezbollah to disarm.”
Iyad, a businessman, also spoke about the economic consequences of the election: “The International Monetary Fund has announced that after forming a government it will transfer support to the Lebanese. I understand them, they do not want the money to go to the corrupt government. Our hope is new soon And Lebanon will embark on a new path. “
Regarding Israel, Iyad provided surprising statements: “We should have signed a peace agreement with Israel 40 years ago, through President Bashir Jumail. But then the Syrians eliminated him. The Iranians and Syrians have an interest in the war with Israel continuing to maintain their control over Lebanon. We “We want peace with Israel as we want peace with any other country. The Lebanese are good people with an open mind and want good relations with everyone.”
Another issue that has been halted so far is the development of the natural gas reservoir off the coast of Lebanon. Indirect negotiations with Israel have been repeatedly called off due to Hezbollah opposition, as well as fears that the gas profits will be used by the organization. Estimates speak of profits of $ 10 billion a month, which is a lot of money that can save Lebanon. That will be one of the key decisions of the new government. “