Houston Weather: Marginal Storm Risk Monday, Stunning Thanksgiving Forecast, and a Glimpse at December Cold
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A low-end risk of severe thunderstorms exists for Monday evening across the Houston area as a cold front approaches, but Thanksgiving Day promises ideal conditions. Forecasters are also monitoring a potential, though currently not expected to be severe, cold snap in early December.
Record-Breaking Heat Gives Way to Change
Houston recently experienced an unusually warm stretch, culminating in a record-breaking high of 88 degrees on Friday, November 17th. This surpassed the previous record for the date, set in 1978. The city also saw an impressive streak of 80-degree days, reaching 10 consecutive days at Bush Intercontinental Airport – the 6th longest such streak on record for November through February. Hobby Airport extended the streak even further, reaching 11 consecutive days with a high of 82 degrees on Saturday, November 18th, and a new seasonal record of 90 degrees on Friday. “Statistically, this mid to late-November stretch will end up a remarkable one,” one meteorologist observed.
Today and Monday’s Forecast
Today, Sunday, November 19th, will be pleasant with sunshine and highs in the upper 70s, following lows in the 50s this morning. However, conditions will change on Monday.
Scattered showers are expected to develop throughout Monday, becoming more numerous in the afternoon and evening. The Brazos Valley and College Station are anticipated to see the first thunderstorms during the late afternoon, with the activity then moving south and east towards the Houston metropolitan area by early evening. A marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms is in effect for most of the region, increasing to a slight risk (2/5) closer to College Station.
The front itself is expected to arrive in the northwest suburbs after 8 or 9 PM, bringing a line of thunderstorms with gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, pushing towards the coast between 1 and 3 AM.
Thanksgiving Week Outlook: Travel and Turkey Trots
Showers may linger in the Brazoria and Matagorda Counties through Tuesday morning, November 21st. However, drier air will move in, allowing temperatures to climb back to near 80 degrees in the afternoon. Wednesday, November 22nd, promises a significant shift with the arrival of cool, dry air and minimal rainfall. Holiday travel on Wednesday is expected to be largely unaffected, with only potential gusty winds in Chicago and minor disruptions at major hubs like Atlanta.
Thanksgiving Turkey Trots will feel noticeably cooler this year. Thanksgiving morning lows are forecast to dip into the 40s across most of the region, with a perfect Thanksgiving Day expected, featuring sunshine and highs in the 60s.
Looking Ahead: Early December Cold and Model Uncertainty
The forecast beyond Thanksgiving weekend remains uncertain, with a chance of showers returning. However, forecasters express skepticism about significant rainfall impacting the Houston area. More concerning is the potential for a cold air mass to move into the region in early December.
The European AI model has sparked discussion, predicting temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal for the first week of December. This translates to potential lows in the upper 20s to low 30s in Houston. While this would represent the first freeze of the season, it is not currently expected to be a damaging cold air outbreak. “Almost all other reliable model guidance is warmer than this,” a senior official stated, adding that the European AI model, while successful with hurricane forecasting, has yet to prove its accuracy in temperature predictions. Despite the uncertainty, residents should be prepared for the possibility of a freeze after Thanksgiving weekend, but likely not a severe one. Forecasters will continue to monitor trends closely.
