“China is the planet’s biggest destroyer”, “China is the worst country in terms of air pollution”, “China is to blame” – these phrases are constantly heard on social networks in any debate about climate change. But what role does China actually play in this process?
Since 2008, China has ranked first in the world in terms of annual greenhouse gas emissions, almost twice ahead of the United States. In 2019, Beijing emitted 10.2 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere (US – 5.3 billion tonnes), accounting for almost 28 percent of global emissions, according to the statistics portal Our World in Data, in which experts from the University of Oxford participate.
But this data alone is not enough to pin the particular blame for global warming on China. “If you look at just one number, you see only one side of the story,” says Shila Raghav, vice president of climate change at environmental organization Conservation International. headquartered in the USA.
From another point of view
To get a different idea, it is worth looking at carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Here at the top of the list are the countries of the Persian Gulf and the Caribbean. The United States, with approximately 16 tons per capita, is only 14th. One resident of the PRC accounts for almost two times less – 7.1 tons, this is the 48th place in this rating. And, by the way, less than that of Russia, which, with 11.51 tons per capita, is in the third ten.
But even this does not give a complete picture. When it comes to carbon dioxide, it is important to know that this gas can remain in the atmosphere for a long time: its complete decomposition takes several hundred thousand years, the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency notes. Some of the gas can be absorbed by oceans or forests rather quickly. Nevertheless, according to the international study “Global Carbon Budget”, which was attended by Robbie Andrew, a scientist at the Institute for Climate Research CICERO in Norway, about 40 percent of CO2 emissions have remained in the atmosphere since 1850.
“Historical emissions” matter
Thus, in order to understand the causes of anthropogenic climate change, according to both experts, it is important to look at the so-called “historical emissions”. And here the picture looks like this: China – as of 2019 – although it ranks second in terms of emissions, but if we analyze the data starting from 1750, then China with 220 billion tons emitted CO2 almost twice less than USA (410 billion tons). At the same time, Germany, with 92 billion tons, ranks fourth in terms of historical emissions, behind Russia and ahead of Great Britain.
The PRC began producing significant amounts of CO2 much later, explains Robbie Andrew. “Emissions have only increased significantly since about 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization and thereby gained access to world markets, which led to continued economic recovery. But the problem with greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arose even before China entered scene “. Or, to put it another way, “China did not really create the problem.”
Producer versus consumer
There is another aspect that is overlooked when considering standard statistics, but which plays a role in the issue of liability. Think how many items you own are labeled “Made in China”? Kettle? Plastic chair? Notebook? The greenhouse gases that were released into the atmosphere during their production are attributed by statistics to China, not your country. Although you are using the product. Statistics are usually produced by manufacturer, not by consumer.
But part of globalization lies in the fact that countries have outsourced production processes. Taking this into account, the picture changes. A few examples: in Germany in 2018 the CO2 balance on a consumption basis was about 14 percent higher than on a production basis, in the USA it was 6.3 percent.
Made in China label
By the way, the leaders in this case will be Malta and Switzerland – with 248 and 225 percent excess, respectively. China, on the other hand, is one of the “exporters” of CO2. By adjusting the emission statistics for products shipped overseas, China’s CO2 balance is reduced by 10 percent.
As Robbie Andrew explains, this effect was even greater for China just 15 years ago. In the mid-2000s, exported goods were responsible for about a fifth of China’s emissions. But the expert expects that for the PRC this indicator will continue to fall in the future, since “the share of the Chinese economy operating for export in its total volume will be less.”
Earlier this year, three scientists from research institutes in Germany and the Netherlands proposed a concept according to which the responsibility for CO2 emissions should be divided between the consumer and the producer in accordance with the economic benefit.
Are we considering all aspects?
And since we are talking about globalization, it is worth noting also international sea and air transportation, which, as a rule, do not appear in the statistics of individual states, but are calculated separately. This way, transporting your laptop will not burden your CO2 budget either in China or in your country.
So, when we talk about responsibility for climate change, maybe it is not worth focusing only on nation states? Transport provides a significant share of the emissions. In 2018, shipping was responsible for about 2.9 percent of CO2 emissions. The share of civil aviation in 2019 was just over two percent.
Container ship in Shenzhen port
The question remains: when it comes to responsibility for climate change, are we not too focused on greenhouse gases? No, both experts agree, since carbon dioxide is the largest contributor to the warming of our planet. However, both believe that the role of other gases should not be ignored when it comes to tackling climate change in the future. An important role is played by methane, which, among other things, is generated in agriculture or can be released during fracking, as well as during oil production.
The question of responsibility and guilt is very complex.
Let’s go back to the very beginning. “We really can’t put all the responsibility on China,” summarizes the conclusion, emphasizes Sheela Raghav of Conservation International. But China, as the largest emitter of CO2 today, plays a decisive role in the distribution of responsibilities in the fight against global warming.
For Robbie Andrew, responsibility for climate change is not based on numbers alone. And here, the scientist believes, it is necessary to answer a number of questions: “Could China develop differently? What would China look like if it did not use all the available coal?” Or can China be blamed for the fact that it does not geographically have rich opportunities to use clean hydropower? “The question of responsibility and guilt is very complex,” concludes Andrew. After all, China has set itself the goal of becoming a CO2-neutral country by 2060.
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