Hurricane Priscilla: Path, Forecast & Category 3 Impact

by Mark Thompson

Hurricane Priscilla Intensifies, Threatens Mexico’s Pacific Coast with Heavy Rains and Waves

A developing tropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Priscilla, is rapidly intensifying and poses a important threat to coastal communities across western Mexico. As of Tuesday morning, October 7, 2025, the storm registered sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour and is forecast to reach Category 3 strength later in the day, according to the National Water Commission (Conagua).

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) currently does not anticipate Priscilla making landfall, but its extensive cloud bands are expected to generate widespread impacts, including torrential rainfall, strong winds, and perilous coastal waves. A surveillance zone has been established extending from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lázaro in Baja California sur.

Storm Details and Projected Path

Located 345 kilometers south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, at 9:15 hours local time, Priscilla is currently moving northwest at 17 kilometers per hour. Authorities are closely monitoring the storm’s trajectory, with forecasts indicating it will continue to move parallel to the western coast of Baja California Sur over the next several days.

“The models indicate that the hurricane will reach category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale during the afternoon of Tuesday,” a Conagua representative stated.The SMN and the National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC) concur with this assessment.

Widespread Impacts Expected Across Multiple States

While the hurricane’s center is expected to remain offshore, the effects will be far-reaching.The states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, michoacán, Guerrero, and the southern portion of Baja California Sur are bracing for significant weather disruptions.

Specifically, the following conditions are anticipated:

  • Rainfall: Heavy rains are expected across southern Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima.
  • Winds: Strong winds will impact Baja California Sur,Nayarit,and jalisco.
  • Waves: Waves up to six meters are forecast for the southern Baja California Sur, while Nayarit and Jalisco could see waves reaching four meters. Sinaloa, Colima, and Michoacán may experience waves up to three meters high, creating hazardous marine conditions.

These conditions pose a risk to both tourist areas and port operations.

Two Reported Missing in Jalisco Amidst Early Rainfall

The effects of Priscilla are already being felt. Reports indicate that at least two people are missing in Jalisco due to the heavy rains associated with the approaching hurricane.

Preventative measures and Government Response

In response to the escalating threat, authorities in Los cabos and La paz, Baja California Sur, have suspended classes and work at all educational levels as a preventative measure. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that authorities across all three levels of government are coordinating efforts to address the anticipated heavy rainfall.

Sheinbaum stated via social media, “Authorities of the three government orders are coordinated and prepared in Los cabos, where strong [winds] are forecast.”

Civil Protection officials are urging residents to stay informed through official channels, including Conagua and the National Meteorological Service, and to avoid all maritime activities and beaches. They also warn of the potential for flooding, landslides, and damage from strong winds capable of downing trees and signage. The possibility of electrical discharges and hail accompanies the expected rainfall.

Tropical Storm Jerry forms in the Atlantic

Conagua also reported the formation of Tropical Storm Jerry in the central Atlantic Ocean. However, officials confirmed that Jerry currently poses no threat to the Mexican coastline.

As Hurricane Priscilla continues its path along the Pacific coast, vigilance and preparedness remain crucial for communities in the affected regions.

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