Ukrainian firefighters try to put out a fire in the Kharkiv region after a Russian attack on Friday. Photo: SERGEY KOZLOV / EPA / NTB
The White House believes Russia may be about to launch a major ground offensive in the Kharkiv region.
Saturday 11 May at 19:08
While President Volodymyr Zelenskyi spoke on Friday evening about Russian forces “expanding operations” in the Kharkiv region and that they must therefore move soldiers there, a Ukrainian military spokesman is on a completely different track. He says to the Ukrainian online newspaper Hromadske:
– Russia is trying to withdraw our forces and resources from the Donetsk region to the Kharkiv region, says Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia forces.
He therefore believes that it is a diversionary maneuver and that the Russian activity in the Kharkiv area is part of a psychological operation to withdraw the Ukrainian forces from the Donbass area in the east.
Residents of the border areas of the Kharkiv region were evacuated on Friday. Photo: Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy / Reuters / NTB
On Friday morning, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported that the Russians are trying to break through in the Kharkiv region.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj confirmed this in his evening speech.
– We understand the extent of the occupier’s forces, see their plan. Our fighters, our artillery, our drones provide an answer to the occupier, says Zelenskyj.
– We are increasing our forces in the direction of Kharkiv, the president continues.
40,000 soldiers
Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø is the main teacher at the Land Forces section at the Norwegian Military Academy and has closely followed the war in Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.
The battles that are happening now are mainly happening in areas north of Kharkiv city. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, fighting is taking place at seven border villages in Kharkiv Oblast.
There is particularly a lot of Russian activity around the two Ukrainian villages of Hlyboke and Starytsia. The villages are located close to the border crossing that separates Russia and Ukraine.
– The Russians are far from Kharkiv city. They have barely crossed the border, says Ydstebø.
<-Palle Ydstebø
Lieutenant-Colonel and head teacher at the Land Force section at the Norwegian Military Academy
The estimates the lieutenant colonel refers to say that the Russians may have organized as many as 40,000 soldiers in the Russian areas.
There are far too few men to take control of Ukraine’s second largest city, according to Ydstebø.
Have better opportunities
The Ukrainians defend an enormously long line of defense – just over 1,000 kilometers inside the country. In addition, they must secure the border crossings to Russia and Belarus.
The effort to prevent a Russian offensive requires large quantities of weapons, ammunition and soldiers.
Ukrainian service personnel walk in front of a burning building destroyed by Russian fire. Photo: Jevgenij Maloletka / AP
US national security adviser John Kirby says that the US is working around the clock to ensure that the much-needed arms supplies reach Ukraine.
– It may well be that the Russians are planning a major attack on Kharkiv, says Kirby.
The head of the Ukrainian Land Forces, Oleksandr Pavlyuk, believes that Russia will take advantage of the period of Ukrainian arms drought to advance on the front.
But both Kirby and senior Ukrainian officials say that Russia probably does not have the resources to conquer the million-dollar city of Kharkiv.
Lieutenant Colonel Ydstebø agrees with both.
– If the Russians manage to tie Ukrainian forces to Kharkiv, will that strengthen the possibility of an offensive elsewhere along the front line?
– Yes, I think the Russians have several options, says Ydstebø.
Dozens of collisions every day
Because the Russians have been conducting offensives from the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk for a long time.
The map by the Ukrainian analysis group Deep State shows the Russian offensive westwards from Luhansk and Donetsk. Photo: Deep State / screenshot
Along the front line here, there are about 30 military clashes every day, according to the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
– There is a large degree of uncertainty related to how large forces the Russians actually have available. What is agreed upon is that the Russians do not have large enough forces to challenge the city of Kharkiv, says Ydstebø.
– They have better opportunities on other fronts.