Is Finland taking the path of Sweden, where the Social Democrats ceded power to the Conservatives in the fall, themselves forced to govern with the support of the far right? The comparison is tempting, even if the Republican front still seems to hold on to Helsinki.
The Prime Minister in decline
However, Prime Minister Sanna Marin has reason to worry. His age (37), his divisive modernity, have attracted international attention increased tenfold by the geopolitical context, while the candidate country for NATO shares 1,300 km of borders with Russia. A popularity that she does not find in the polls, three months before the legislative elections, on April 2.
The social democrat camp is even for the first time given third position (18.8%), half a point behind the extreme right of the Party of Finns (19.3%), outdistanced by the conservatives of the National Coalition (23%), according to an opinion poll unveiled on 5th January by the Finnish broadcasting company (1).
angry women
Tuomo Turja, director of the polling institute that carried out the study, does not go overboard to explain the success of the nationalists led by MP Riikka Purra, the first woman to lead the party. “All the increase in support comes from women”, he summarizes. Another movement, the Center Party, benefits from the same dynamic, with an initial odds of two figures (11.9%). The Social Democrats seem to be suffering from inflation, the surge in energy and the rise in crime in the country.
The ruling coalition, made up of five parties (Social Democrats, Centrists, Greens, Left, Swedes from Finland) has already been pitching for three months. She was even a hair’s breadth from breaking out in early December. The Center Party has indeed voted with the opposition for an amendment to the law on the restoration of nature, provoking the ire of environmentalists, but also of all its partners because the custom is that positions are concerted.
To a right hitch
The stumbling blocks were not lacking either in the fall, from taxation to the rights of the Sami, the last indigenous people in Europe where the Center finds significant support. Only the international context, with the war in Ukraine, and its serious repercussions on the economy, seems today to ensure the cohesion of the political team.
Finland, however, is not close to forming, as in Sweden, a right-wing bloc including the nationalists. The most likely scenario, provided the National Coalition maintains its lead until election day, would be a left-right coalition, as was the case under the government of Harri Holkeri (1987-1991) or under the Katainen and Stubb governments (2011-2015). A coalition indeed appears possible with the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Swedes of Finland, but this time under the leadership of the conservative leader Petteri Orpo.