Iran Protests Reveal Deep Divisions Within Opposition, Complicating Path to Change
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The ongoing unrest in Iran has galvanized opposition groups in exile, yet a long-standing and bitter schism between key factions – monarchists and leftist groups – threatens to undermine any unified challenge to the ruling clerics. This division, rooted in the period before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is playing out both online and in demonstrations across Europe and North America, creating a complex landscape for potential change.
The core of the disagreement lies between supporters of Reza Pahlavi, son of the ousted Shah, and the more organized Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). Assessing the level of support each faction holds within Iran, or their potential to influence future events, remains a significant challenge, with analysts suggesting both groups enjoy greater popularity among expatriate communities than within the country itself.
Many Iranians living outside Iran express skepticism towards both the monarchists and the MEK, lacking a comparable, organized opposition network. This absence of a universally accepted movement or leader has further complicated international responses to the escalating crisis, including scrutiny of potential interventions. “What’s problematic is there has been no inclusive organisation that has been built that can bring together Iranians of all walks of life: religious, ethnic, socioeconomic,” noted Sanam Vakil, Middle East head at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Gauging Support Amidst Unrest
Over the past two weeks of violent demonstrations, videos circulating from Iranian cities have shown protesters chanting in support of the former monarchy and the late Shah’s son, who has publicly encouraged the protests. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who went into exile in 1979 and died the following year, presented himself as a national leader and modernizer, drawing on ancient Persian heritage while maintaining close ties with Western allies. However, his rule was marked by resistance to democratic reforms and growing economic inequality.
The 65-year-old Reza Pahlavi, currently based in the U.S., advocates for democracy in Iran but has not outlined a specific role for himself should the current regime collapse. His supporters operate one of the primary Persian-language satellite television stations broadcasting into Iran. They point to the recent videos of protesters chanting his name as evidence of growing popularity, arguing he is uniquely positioned to unite the country should the Islamic Republic fall.
However, views among foreign officials and diplomats are mixed. A Western diplomat suggested that Pahlavi’s name may be invoked by protesters simply due to a lack of other recognizable opposition figures, with no clear indication of substantial domestic support. Conversely, a European official indicated that a surge in protest numbers following calls for action by opponents of the government, including Pahlavi, suggests his influence may be broader than previously understood.
“Any role he played would need to be in the context of a wider democratic movement,” said Iranian analyst and former diplomat Mehrdad Khonsari. “You need a coalition of people who believe in democratic values in order to sort of lighten the weight and give greater confidence to people.”
The MEK’s Contentious Position
The potential for Pahlavi to gain traction within Iran is not acknowledged by the MEK, whose supporters view the pre-revolution monarchy as comparable to the current theocracy. Their online slogan, “No Monarchy, No Supreme Leader,” encapsulates this opposition.
The MEK is a movement that blends leftist and Islamist ideologies. Before and after the revolution, its members carried out bombings within Iran, even as support for rival factions grew on the streets. Banished by the ruling clerics in 1981, the MEK established military bases in Iraq and launched attacks on Iranian troops during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war – a period many Iranians remember with anger.
Designated as a terrorist organization in the United States until 2012, the MEK has garnered support from some Western politicians, including former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. However, the European official described the MEK as widely despised within Iran, largely due to its actions during the Iran-Iraq war, and analysts believe it has had minimal presence in the country for decades.
The group’s official leader, Massoud Rajavi, has not been seen since 2002 and is widely presumed dead, though the MEK has not confirmed this. His wife, Maryam Rajavi, currently leads the organization and its affiliate, the National Council for Resistance in Iran. While group officials claim widespread support and activity within Iran, Reuters has observed no public displays of support for the MEK during the recent protests.
Monarchists, alongside many other Iranian dissidents and the current ruling establishment, view the MEK with intense suspicion, citing its history of violence and ideological rigidity. For many Iranians, the debate between the Islamic Republic, monarchists longing for the 1970s, and a revolutionary group marginalized in the early 1980s feels increasingly outdated.
As monarchist and MEK supporters remain prominent among émigrés, and familiar faces continue to dominate the Islamic Republic, Iran’s population has doubled in size, becoming more urban and educated. Most political movements within Iran since 1979 have focused on bolstering or reforming the Islamic Republic, rather than outright overthrowing it, until the recent waves of protests demanding more comprehensive change. “Iranians inside Iran are, I think, not just looking to the diaspora for their future,” Vakil concluded.
