Last October, Sanae Takaichi made history as Japan’s first female Prime Minister, ascending to the role after being elected head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the nation’s long-ruling conservative force. Following a snap election called last month, she secured a supermajority in Japan’s lower house of parliament on Sunday, bolstering her power to increase military and domestic spending, adopt a firmer stance against China, and implement more restrictive immigration policies.
A Landslide Victory and a Shift in Japanese Politics
Takaichi’s election marks a significant moment for Japan, signaling a potential shift in both domestic and foreign policy.
- The LDP’s supermajority is unprecedented in postwar Japanese politics.
- Takaichi’s personal popularity played a surprisingly large role in the election outcome.
- The victory reflects a broader trend of right-wing nationalism gaining traction globally.
- Her willingness to publicly address Taiwan’s defense has provoked a strong response from China.
The scale of the LDP victory is unlike anything seen since World War II, representing the first time a party has achieved a supermajority on its own. This is particularly notable given the relative parity between the LDP and opposition parties over the past three decades. While Junichiro Koizumi’s 2005 election win was also substantial, Takaichi’s triumph was even more decisive.
Harvard professor of modern Japanese history, Andrew Gordon, noted a departure from the typical dynamics of Japanese politics. “There’s a stereotype, which I think has many kernels of truth to it, that Japanese politics is not heavily driven by personality,” he explained. “But Takaichi’s victory seemed to be largely driven by the surprising spike in the popularity of the Prime Minister. So that’s pretty unusual.”
Gordon, who observed the political climate in Japan from October through January, highlighted the unusual disconnect between Takaichi’s individual popularity and her party’s standing. “The gap between Takaichi’s popularity and her party’s popularity seemed to be either as high or higher than it has ever been,” he said. “She succeeded in raising the profile and increasing support for the L.D.P.”
The Rise of Right-Wing Nationalism
The election outcome aligns with a global surge in right-wing nationalism. The success of the far-right Sanseito Party in last summer’s House of Councillors election, which determines the makeup of the upper house of parliament, demonstrated a growing appetite for xenophobic, anti-immigrant sentiment. The LDP appears to be attempting to capitalize on this trend.
“There is no question that it is absolutely part of the story,” Gordon stated. “The L.D.P. has been very good at shifting their own policies in the direction of the new sentiment among voters.” He pointed to the 1970s and 1980s, when the LDP successfully adopted environmental protection policies to appeal to a popular political movement.
Economic concerns, particularly inflation, also played a role in the election. While no party offered a clear solution, voters appeared willing to give Takaichi a chance. “Although it’s hard to trust that anyone has a good answer for reducing the inflation of the past three or so years… voters seemed to say, ‘O.K., well, this new person, let’s give her a chance.’”
A Hawkish Stance on Foreign Policy
Takaichi’s willingness to take a firm stance on foreign policy, particularly regarding China, sets her apart. Unlike some rightward shifts elsewhere in the world that lean towards isolationism, Takaichi has been assertive in her approach.
Last year, responding to a question from a member of parliament, Takaichi stated that Japan would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. This statement, while potentially aligning with existing defense agreements with the United States, was unusually direct. “Her answer is a departure in terms of how publicly it was stated,” Gordon explained. “She could have…signalled to the Chinese government not to fool around with Taiwan through a back channel and easily avoided all of this fuss. But, because she said it publicly…it led the Chinese to respond with fury.”
What will Takaichi’s victory mean for Japan’s relationship with China? Her willingness to publicly address the defense of Taiwan signals a potential for increased tensions and a more assertive foreign policy.
