Coinbase Stock Plummets as Analysts Slash Price Targets
Investors are bracing for a potentially rocky earnings report from Coinbase as the crypto winter chills trading volumes.
- Coinbase (COIN) stock has fallen over 50% since early October, including a 27% drop in 2026 alone.
- JPMorgan lowered its price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of Thursday’s fourth quarter earnings release.
- Analysts anticipate lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices, and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances will impact Coinbase’s results.
- The acquisition of Deribit is expected to partially offset these headwinds.
The crypto market’s recent struggles are hitting Coinbase particularly hard. Shares of the leading American exchange have tumbled more than 50% since bitcoin briefly topped $126,000 in early October, with a further 27% decline experienced in 2026 alone. The company is set to report its fourth quarter earnings after market close on Thursday, and analysts are preparing for potentially disappointing numbers.
Analyst Downgrades Reflect Market Concerns
In anticipation of the earnings report, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington significantly reduced his price target for COIN, slashing it to $290 from $399. Despite the lowered target, Worthington remains optimistic about the stock, believing it still holds a potential 75% upside from its current price of $1655.
Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for the quarter, a notable decrease from the $801 million reported in the third quarter. This anticipated drop is largely attributed to declining trading volumes, the persistent weakness in cryptocurrency prices, and a slowdown in the growth of USDC stablecoin balances.
He estimates spot crypto trading volume reached $263 billion during the quarter, and forecasts stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million, reflecting the reduced circulation of USDC. However, the recent acquisition of Deribit, a crypto derivatives exchange in August, is expected to provide some relief, partially offsetting these negative factors.
Deribit Acquisition Offers a Silver Lining
Including contributions from Deribit, JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit accounting for approximately $117 million based on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, Coinbase had reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.
On the subscription and services front, the bank anticipates revenue of $670 million, falling short of Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million. This shortfall is linked to softer crypto prices, reduced staking yields, and the slower expansion of USDC. Worthington also expects operating expenses to remain below guidance as the company focuses on cost control.
Other Analysts Weigh In
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish indicated his estimates for adjusted EBITDA are roughly 10% below consensus, driven by anticipated weakness in retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenues, based on read-throughs from Robinhood, and blockchain rewards revenues,” Budish wrote, adding that current consensus estimates may not fully account for publicly available volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase exchange volume at approximately $261 billion for the quarter. The firm noted that Robinhood’s (HOOD) reported retail crypto volumes, which have historically mirrored Coinbase’s, experienced a 15% quarter-over-quarter decline.
Compass Point took a more pessimistic stance. Analyst Ed Engel expressed a negative outlook on the stock leading into the earnings release, anticipating disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel stated. He also predicts January trading revenue will reflect Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the core financial figures, investors will be closely scrutinizing commentary regarding trading activity in early 2026, the long-term viability of USDC-related income, and the potential for newer ventures, such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business, to mitigate the impact of fluctuations in spot crypto markets.
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