The Kenyan government raised alarms on July 24, 2026, after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels threatened a naval blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Nairobi warned that the escalation could disrupt global trade, spike fuel prices, and increase inflationary pressure on the economy as attacks on commercial vessels intensify.
The threat follows a July 20 announcement by the Houthis that they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, specifically targeting oil tankers using Saudi Arabian ports on the Red Sea. This move is designed to pressure Saudi Arabia and its allies as Middle East fighting intensifies.
For Kenya, the stakes are immediate. The country relies heavily on petroleum products, fertilizer, and other essential commodities that transit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Any disruption to this route typically triggers a rise in freight charges and insurance premiums, costs that eventually reach the consumer.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait and Global Energy Shocks
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a narrow 29-kilometre waterway separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea. It serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal and carries roughly 12 per cent of global trade, about one-quarter of worldwide container traffic, and approximately 7 per cent of global oil supplies.
The current crisis is compounded by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was partially blockaded by Iran after U.S. and Israeli attacks on February 28. With Hormuz disrupted, the Red Sea became a critical alternative for Gulf oil. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
This vulnerability has already rattled markets. Crude oil prices hit over $100 per barrel on Wednesday for the first time since May. According to the source articles, Brent crude rose by roughly 10-13 per cent this week, climbing from the high-$80s range to around $97-$100 per barrel.
Kenya’s Economic Exposure and Fuel Price Risks
The timing of these threats creates a precarious window for Kenyan motorists. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) typically calculates fuel prices using landing cost averages up to the 10th of every month. This means ships arriving over the next 16 days will influence the August price cycle.
In the current cycle running from June 14 to August 14, EPRA retained May prices. In Nairobi, Super Petrol is retailing at Ksh214.03 per litre, Diesel at Ksh222.86, and Kerosene at Ksh191.38.
Musalia Mudavadi warned that the disruption of supply chains for oil and fertilizer would heighten inflationary pressures across Kenya and the wider East African region. The government’s primary defense against these shocks is a Government-to-Government (G-to-G) fuel import framework with major producers, specifically Saudi Arabia, intended to secure stable supplies.
Diplomatic Response and Regional Instability
The Kenyan government has condemned the attacks and called for an immediate de-escalation. Mudavadi urged regional and international partners to use diplomatic and multilateral mechanisms to maintain maritime security and freedom of navigation.
“Kenya condemns the attacks, urges the immediate de-escalation of hostilities, and encourages the parties to pursue peaceful resolution of the conflict in the interests of their peoples, regional stability and maintenance of international peace and security.”
Musalia Mudavadi, Prime Cabinet Secretary
The broader conflict involves a complex web of alliances. The Houthis are viewed by the U.S. as being armed and funded by Iran, though the group denies being a proxy. Iran champions the Houthis as part of its Axis of Resistance
, alongside Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite militias. The current escalation follows a breakdown of a 2022 truce after the internationally recognised government of Yemen struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane from landing.
This geopolitical volatility has lasting effects on shipping.
The simultaneous threat to the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the existing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz effectively puts both of the Middle East’s major oil export routes at risk. For a country like Kenya, which relies on these specific corridors, the G-to-G agreement with Saudi Arabia is no longer just a trade preference—it is a critical strategic lifeline against a potential energy blockade.
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