The three statements that came out after assembly elections in three northeastern states and by-elections in five places will be a small indication of how the dynamics of national politics will be. Those statements are from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. If Modi’s statement is a reply to Kharge, Kharge’s statement is an indication of how the Congress will look at the upcoming elections. The most telling part of Mamata Banerjee’s statement was that she came out dismissing a broad opposition coalition led by the Congress. The most crucial assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka are due this year. Just before this, Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland assembly elections were held. With this, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be said to have begun, even if not officially. What will be the changes in the national politics of the election results in the three northeastern states?
∙ Smoldering and smoldering, Mamata set fire
Mamata Banerjee had once met NCP chief Sharat Pawar to say that they should avoid the Congress and form an opposition alliance to face the BJP. She is also the President of Trinamool Congress. But Pawar later told the media that it was not possible to form an opposition without the Congress. Later, Mamata has often tried to challenge the infallibility of the Congress and assume the leadership of the opposition. That was the purpose of actions such as calling a meeting of the opposition parties in connection with the presidential election. But with cases and arrests against party leaders and constant presence of central agencies, Mamata confined herself to state affairs. Meanwhile, the elections in the North Eastern states and the by-elections in the Sagardigi constituency of Bengal are coming up.
Trinamool won five seats in Meghalaya despite not making any impact in Tripura. But Mukul Sangma left Congress and joined Trinamool along with 11 MLAs. The party has not been able to win all those MLAs again. Yesterday’s statements prove that it was the defeat in Sagardigi constituency that annoyed Mamata more than her victory in Meghalaya. The by-election was called for here after the Trinamool Congress leader who was a minister passed away. This was the stronghold of the Left and later Trinamool. A Trinamool representative has been here for the last 13 years. That is what the Congress has overthrown this time with the help of the Left. Mamata’s allegation is that it is a lie to say that the Congress and the Left are fighting with the BJP and that the three groups are very close. Mamata clarified one more thing saying that the Congress candidate won this time by flipping the BJP vote to defeat the Trinamool. No alliance with anyone in 2024, will contest alone.
This statement can be taken as an outburst by a furious Mamata Banerjee in the wake of her election defeat. But she is not the kind of person who shows political immaturity just to ‘just’ make a statement and stir the pool in a situation where the Lok Sabha elections are approaching. Therefore, when Mamata says that she has no political alliance with anyone, it is clear that she means the Congress-led opposition front. In the situation in Bengal, there is no atmosphere in the state where the CPM and Congress can go along. Even when the opposition coalition comes, this stonewalling will be evident. Therefore, it is possible that Mamata was holding her own chair with one knee extended. Mamata’s new stance may also help her maintain her infallibility even if extraordinary circumstances arise and she has to be a part of the opposition coalition. If Mamata decides to stand alone, Bengal is going to see a strong three-cornered or sometimes four-cornered contest in the coming Lok Sabha elections.
∙ ‘It doesn’t matter if they are small states’
As the election campaign in the northeastern states is in full swing, former president Rahul Gandhi returned to Delhi after completing the Bharat Jodo Yatra and attended the budget session. Elections in Tripura were held on February 16. But since the 15th of that month, the Congress leader’s picture of him skiing in Gulmarg, Jammu and Kashmir was widely circulated by his followers. Rahul Gandhi was not present in Tripura, where the Congress decided to join forces with the Left to strongly oppose the BJP. Party president Mallikarjun Kharge also did not go there. Congress central leaders did not visit these states except for Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Meghalaya, where elections were held on February 27, and Kharge’s visit to Nagaland once each. In the 2018 elections, the Congress was the single largest party in the state by winning 21 seats. But despite the refusal of the Congress, three seats in Tripura and five in Meghalaya were given by the people.
Kharge later clarified the Congress’s stand by analyzing the election results in the northeastern states. “They are small states. The trend there is usually to side with whoever is ruling the centre. We won only a few seats. “I thought that if we form an alliance, we will get a majority,” was the reaction of the Congress President on the election results in the three states. There were some observations that this time we saw the Congress which conceded defeat and retreated before coming out to contest. There are those who suspect that these elections were something that should be taken lightly, without preparing for a comeback in these once-ruled states, even when there was a possibility of putting up a good fight. In this position, Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Party President JP Nadda, Central Ministers and Chief Ministers have come out to campaign for the BJP in these three states.
∙ If the same approach continues?
Assembly elections will be held this year in the states of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, which are ruled by the party, and in the states of Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, which were captured by the party despite being in power. Four very important states in Indian politics are going to elections. For the Congress, several possibilities remain. It remains to be seen what will be the strategies that the Congress will come up with, with the possibility of winning all four states, losing all four states, winning one or two states. As there are 93 Lok Sabha seats across the four states, these states will also be important in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The assembly elections in the four states are described as the semi-finals before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Election campaigns will be going on throughout the year and this will continue into the Lok Sabha elections. The elections in the three northeastern states were used by the BJP as a trumpet to enter the elections in those four states. BJP is already preparing for elections to four states. However, there is still no big difference in the approach of the Congress, which is proved by the complete abandonment of the North Eastern states and the reaction of the party president after that. Such electoral victories also give the BJP a psychological victory over its opponents. The proof of this is the way the BJP celebrated its victory in what the Congress president described as ‘three small states’.
∙ Northeast, Goa; Target Kerala?
Modi, Amit Shah and Nadda were celebrating at the party headquarters because they realized that the BJP had crossed a big hurdle. That is what came out through the words of Prime Minister Modi. Two things were important. One, by taking Kharge’s ‘small state’ statement, Modi was able to change it to suit his politics. “Such a statement is against those states and their judgments. Congress has been following vote bank politics like this for a long time, ignoring small states, poor and Dalits. It destroyed the country. “Now the people of those countries know that they are not being ignored,” Modi said. Kharge’s very light words are turning into a big political weapon for the BJP.
There is no doubt that the victory this time will give a big boost to the BJP in the next four assembly elections. Such victories will help keep the party workers upbeat. Along with that, another statement of Modi should be seen in the context of victory in the North East. It can be seen that the statement that the minorities of Kerala will come with the BJP is more a part of the BJP’s political plan than it was made in the context of a mere election victory. Modi himself made it clear. There has been a change in the attitude of minorities towards BJP. Successive governance in Goa is proof of that. Now the Christian section of North Eastern states will also stand with the BJP. In many states wrestlers are Dosti in North Eastern states. People of Kerala are also seeing this. The Prime Minister said that the BJP will form the government in Kerala too.
Not only has the Christian-majority Meghalaya and Nagaland not lagged behind, but the continued participation in governance gives the BJP no small amount of confidence. BJP won 12 seats in Meghalaya and two seats in Nagaland. That is why it is clear that Modi’s words extended to Kerala politics where minority votes are crucial.
English Summary: How the North East Election Results will Affect India’s Major Political Parties in Coming Polls?