« Proceed with the withdrawal of the soldiers. By pronouncing these words on Wednesday, November 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recorded the announced departure of Russian forces from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the southern region of Kherson. At least…probably. Because the Ukrainian authorities are currently being cautious, fearing deceit on the part of Moscow.
« If the Russians say one thing, it’s going to happen the opposite Plague Vitaly Kim, governor of Mikolaivsk. “ We see no sign that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight », affirms Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to President Zelensky, who denounces « staged television statements ». « Fighting on the right bank of the Dnieper will continue for some time “, adds Oleksyi Arestovych, another adviser to the Ukrainian presidency.
” Tense situation “
For several weeks now, kyiv has publicly shown a certain skepticism towards the growing signs suggesting an imminent retreat from the right bank of the Dnieper, as the Russian troops find themselves more and more isolated there. The result of a Ukrainian counter-offensive initiated at the end of the summer aimed at liberating the region of Kherson and the eponymous city, the only regional capital captured by Russia since the start of its invasion on February 24.
The precision artillery delivered by the United States to the Ukrainians proved decisive for the kyiv troops, who at first advanced slowly through this region of level steppes and bad roads. By systematically hitting the bridges connecting the two banks of the wide river, the HIMARS missile launchers managed to devastate the supply lines of the Russian units located on the right bank, making Kherson a de facto “island”.
Isolated, having to rely on river barges for supplies, the Russian troops have seen their situation worsen over the weeks. Recognizing a “tense situation” on the front, the Russian command announced on October 18 the evacuation of the population of Kherson. A “humanitarian” decision to protect civilians from Ukrainian strikes, justifies Moscow. A deportation, answer some Ukrainian officials, while others see it as a stage to conceal the evacuation of local collaborators. And a sign that Moscow is beginning to seriously consider leaving the right bank.
“They are trying to convince us that they are withdrawing”
Speculations still fueled by the rare information and images managing to break through the “informational blackout” of kyiv on the front and the censorship of the Russian occupation authorities in Kherson. Here, a video shows an abandoned Russian checkpoint. There, a photo shows the Russian flag missing from the building of the Kherson regional administration… whose officials appointed by Moscow are soon evacuated to the left bank, taking with them the bones of Prince Grigory Potemkin, a Russian nobleman and lover of the Empress Catherine II. “Aristocratic” version of the looting in which the Russian troops were at the same time engaged in the shops and lodgings of Kherson.
War in Ukraine: Russian reflux in Kherson
But kyiv remains cautious. While some Russian soldiers are being evacuated, Ukrainian authorities say others are being taken to “Kherson Island” to reinforce positions. “ They are very deliberately trying to convince us that they are withdrawing commented on November 5 Natalia Goumeniouk, spokesperson for the Southern Command of the Ukrainian army… who has not changed her mind since Sergei Shoigu’s statement.
“An impressive victory”
« The statement by the Russian command may be part of a psychological information operation to create the wrong impression “, she comments following the withdrawal order. Fearing a trap to lure kyiv into a premature offensive, she asserts that Russian troops would have built defensive lines near Kherson, and would stand, ready for battle, on their positions.
Not all observers agree, however. “ This is an impressive win for Ukrainecomments on Twitter Rob Lee, a specialist in the Russian army, who does not believe that Sergei Shoigu’s order is a scheme on the part of the Russians. The big question now is whether Russia can withdraw without suffering heavy human and material losses. Because a retreat is a dangerous operation, he writes. If it really were to take place, Ukraine would have every interest in making it as costly as possible.