Should this be seen as a good example of the Coué method? The little Brussels music wants to be rather reassuring about the repercussions of the announced victory of the right-wing coalition in Italy and the probable installation of Giorgia Meloni as President of the Council. Admittedly, politicians, civil servants or diplomats admit that the arrival of the extreme right to power in one of the six founding countries of the European Union will constitute a “political shock”. Still, their argument on what will mitigate this shock is already developed.
Will the probable future President of the Italian Council jeopardize the precious unity that has stood against Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24? But no… the boss of the Fratelli d’Italia is fiercely Atlanticist. Can Italy reconsider the reforms initiated by the outgoing Mario Draghi? But no… it needs too much of the 200 billion euros of the European recovery plan and too much to lose when its public debt reaches 150% of GDP. “Giorgia Meloni will just try to survive as head of government, asserts a right-wing parliamentary source. She will hope that Matteo Salvini, her League ally, plays the game and that the markets give her some respite”.
In the European Parliament, moreover, the elected Fratelli d’Italia do not sit in the ID group – that of the National Rally -, but in the ECR, European Conservatives and Reformists, which is not struck with opprobrium by the rest of the political spectrum and, on the contrary, participates in the elaboration of European compromises.
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“Messages were sent via representatives of Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, to indicate on which points concessions were possible”, assures a familiar with the mysteries of Brussels. Thus, the new Italian government could request and obtain a redirection of part of the funds of the recovery plan towards the energy sector. On the migration file too, his concerns will be listened to.
Everything seems in place for the Brussels machine to digest the arrival of the Italian neo-fascist by hunkering down. The reality is that the European Union has no choice if it wants to keep moving forward. It cannot afford the luxury of a paralysis of decision-making processes, while war or the energy crisis require unprecedented reactivity. In addition, if Rome were to derail the implementation of the European recovery plan, based on an unprecedented common debt, the chances of reproducing the experience in the future would evaporate, to the great displeasure of France or others.
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This is well worth letting go of the political team chosen democratically by the Italians. And too bad if it recalls the strategy applied for years to Viktor Orban’s Hungary. In order not to point the strong man of Budapest, the club has closed its eyes for too long to the abuses of the rule of law. If the Meloni government toes the line on the economy or Ukraine, while internally challenging women’s or gay rights, what will Italy’s partners do? Hopefully they won’t look away.
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