Alert for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon: the upcoming campaign in Marie-Victorin is not just a great opportunity to be elected to the Assembly.
It’s also a trap he might not survive.
Following the resignation of MNA Catherine Fournier, who became mayoress of Longueuil, a by-election must be organized.
For the moment, the leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ) refuses to say whether he will run, and he is right. He has more to lose than to gain. Especially if he reveals his game before his opponents.
At first glance, his candidacy would make sense. After all, the PQ have won the last 11 elections in Marie-Victorin. The siege would give visibility that their leader is sorely lacking. He could answer François Legault during the question period.
But the risk is enormous.
When a new leader of the official opposition runs for a by-election, the other parties usually leave the way open for him. Except that the PQ no longer has this status.
Solidarity is betting on a collapse of the PQ. They will not hesitate to oppose an opponent. Same thing for the CAQ – according to my information, it will announce its colors this Saturday.
And that’s not all. With her usual morbid fascination with mutiny, Martine Ouellet once again divides the independence movement by creating a new party. She has already announced her candidacy and is only waiting for the cameras to put her former family on trial.
Conservative leader Eric Duhaime could also take advantage of the platform to send a candidate to create controversies with high media visibility.
Only the Liberals would not introduce anyone. But given their weakness in the polls, they mostly seem to want to avoid humiliation.
In 2018, the PQ majority melted into Marie-Victorin. Mme Fournier won by only 705 votes against the caquist Martyne Prévost, a businesswoman little known to the general public. With its dominance in the polls, the CAQ could this time attract a star.
The PQs dream that a surprise victory revives their party, but a defeat would knock it out. Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon would appear at the leaders’ debate with the aura of the loser. If he makes it that far.
And even if he won, he would have spent precious weeks going door-to-door in Longueuil instead of speaking to the general population during press conferences at the National Assembly.
Either way, there is no rush. The partial must take place by April. François Legault will not trigger it before January at the earliest.
The PQ leader should be careful before opening his game. If he advances, the CAQ could oppose him a heavyweight to deliver the coup de grace.
I am told that the PQ would have at least one other serious person in mind to be a candidate. It would be wise to have several cards to play. Because the next few months will be decisive for its future.
It has become cliché to talk about the death of the PQ. Nevertheless, the party is indeed threatened.
If nothing changes, the CAQ is heading for a landslide victory. Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon could however make an argument.
A nationalist might say to himself that even if the PQ is not his first choice to govern, he must survive. To keep the independence option on the back burner and to put pressure on Mr. Legault in issues such as language.
However, the weakness of the Liberals is not necessarily advantageous for Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon. Many French-speaking baby-boomer liberals have moved on to the CAQ, which will hurt the PQ in close races.
The polls are rather depressing for Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon. According to Léger Marketing, in October his party collected 13% of voting intentions among Francophones, with statistical equality with Quebec solidaire. Barely 3% of those polled believe he would make the best prime minister. It’s less than Eric Duhaime.
But there are still some glimmers of hope. He is the least known chef, and therefore the one who has the most chance to change opinion about him.
Adding a little emotion to his Cartesian speech wouldn’t hurt.
During the pandemic, Quebecers rallied behind Mr. Legault. The PQ leader hopes that this effect will wane, enough for him to approach the pay zone of 20% of voting intentions.
In addition, the party has paid off its debt, which will help it to campaign.
And finally, there is the cause.
A third of voters still say they are separatists. Of course, that doesn’t mean they make it a priority or that it determines their vote. But some might want to keep the party that has historically defended this option alive.
For Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon, the question of the next campaign could be: do you think that Quebec should keep a independence counterweight? That the PQ is needed to put pressure on the more moderate nationalists of the CAQ?
Even if Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon cannot put it this way himself without admitting his weakness, he must hope that voters will reflect on this.
It is not the most exciting strategy. But at the moment, I don’t see many more.