Low hanging gray weeks, pouring rain and barren white tents: Angela Merkel’s likely last EU summit in Brdo pri Kranju was inhospitable from the external conditions and also bleak in terms of content. The EU heads of state and government had actually come to Slovenia to talk to the Balkan countries about their prospects for accession. But the EU is currently barely able to act internally.
The power vacuum in Germany has an immediate impact on Brussels: Merkel used to have the last word at long night meetings. Now she is a classic “lame duck”, which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in particular experiences. Von der Leyen, who was lifted into office by Merkel after a mock battle between “top candidates”, is viewed very critically in front of many EU countries. On the one hand, it has no home power; on the other hand, many smaller states and the opposition parties are suspicious of their continued proximity to lobbyists and advisors.
The interregnum resulting from Merkel’s departure cannot be used by French President Emmanuel Macron either: he will have to stand for re-election next year and has been sidelined on the world stage in particular: the USA and Great Britain have France with them a billion dollar submarine deal with Australia brutally thwarted and opened a nuclear front against China with the AUKUS military alliance.
As if Beijing wanted to confirm the need for escalation, the communist leadership sent dozens of fighter jets into Taiwanese airspace in the past few days. The Taipei government speaks of the most dangerous situation in decades and sees a real threat of war. The upheavals in the relationship between Washington and Paris are therefore only a minor issue, even though the Americans are trying to reassure Macron.
They are unlikely to succeed completely, which is also related to the internal American conditions: In an interview with a French TV broadcaster, the US climate commissioner John Kerry said that President Joe Biden was not aware of the snub in France caused by the cross shot at the submarines been. Since then, people in Paris and Brussels have been puzzling over who is actually in charge in Washington.
Since traditionally nothing works in the EU without a transatlantic agreement, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg traveled to Washington for consultations. Before there came the next low blow for Macron: NATO does not consider the planned EU defense to be a good idea, said Stoltenberg about Macron’s favorite project, the establishment of an EU army.
Accordingly, Macon acted listlessly on the question of the accession of the Balkan states: They are being put off. Von der Leyen was only able to announce that the countries could receive around 1.1 billion euros in EU funds this year through an economic and investment plan. The Commission wanted to propose a new package of 600 million euros for this, it said in the text for the final declaration.
The heads of the Balkan states Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo were frustrated by the vague perspective. Some delegation circles have been negotiating for 20 years now, and there has been no real progress. Others cannot even start negotiations, such as North Macedonia, which even changed its name at the request of the EU, but is now blocked by Bulgaria.
The Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz summarized the dilemma: “If we as the European Union do not offer any serious prospects for this region, then we have to be aware that other superpowers such as China, Russia or Turkey are playing an increasingly important role there.”
Turkey has had a similar experience with its eternal application for membership and, after waiting too long, said goodbye to the European political association, although a few years ago there was a secular majority in Turkey that clearly turned towards the EU. But the EU is barely able to act because of its own problems.
Kurzen’s prophetic words have no political weight: while the Chancellor in the southern neighboring country was pondering the future of Europe, the public prosecutor’s office in Vienna organized a raid on his Federal Chancellery and the ÖVP party headquarters – a unique event in the Second Republic. According to the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation, it is about allegations of bribery, corruption and breach of trust.