As U.S. immigration enforcement intensifies across Miami and nationwide, a new Florida International University poll shows that 68 percent of Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade plan to vote Republican in the November 3 midterm elections, even as 76 percent disapprove of recent deportations affecting non-criminal immigrants.
Two years after Donald Trump secured a historic margin of victory in Florida powered heavily by Latino communities, his administration’s mass deportation pledge has collided with political reality in the nation’s Cuban-American capital. Federal immigration sweeps and mass hearings at the Miami Immigration Court have filled waiting rooms with anxious relatives while exposing deep fissures inside a diaspora that once felt insulated from shifting enforcement priorities.
I-220A Forms Disqualify Cuban Immigrants from Permanent Residency
For decades, immigrants fleeing Cuba relied on the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 as a reliable pathway to permanent residency and citizenship. But many arrivals who crossed the border under the Biden administration received a different immigration designation—specifically the I-220A release form or I-220B orders of supervision—which the current administration argues disqualifies them from those traditional protections.
Ismael Labrador, a Miami-based immigration lawyer, described a packed waiting room filled with family members trying to secure the release of detained relatives before their removal. Labrador noted that many in his community believed enforcement would focus strictly on individuals with criminal records.
“Personally, I voted for Trump because I wanted to get criminals out of the country,” he says, alleging that “communists came in from Cuba under Biden.””We wanted to have a safe America. We never thought that he was going to go after everybody.”
Ismael Labrador
The anxiety has touched thousands of families. Heydi Sanchez, who left Cuba during the island’s economic collapse and crossed the border from Mexico into the US before settling in Florida, was deported to Cuba under an i-220B Order of Supervision, separating her from her family after the administration’s immigration crackdown.
The Miami-Dade Voting Paradox in the FIU Cuba Poll
A comprehensive study published by Florida International University surveyed 1,004 Cuban-American adults in Miami-Dade County between September 4 and 29. The findings capture a striking political paradox: overwhelming dissatisfaction with current removal policies does not shatter allegiance to the Republican Party.
| FIU Cuba Poll Metric | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Disapprove of deportations of Cubans without criminal records | 76 percent |
| Plan to vote for Republican congressional candidates | 68 percent |
| Registered Republicans among survey respondents | 53 percent |
Dr. Guillermo J. Grenier, the lead researcher of the survey and a sociology professor at FIU, noted the intense political tugging close to election day. Grenier explained that while 63 percent of registered Republicans in the poll disapprove of the recent deportations, their broader electoral preferences remain firmly attached to the party.
Florida Republicans Calibrate Messaging Ahead of November Midterms
The friction over immigration has forced prominent Florida Republicans to calibrate their messaging ahead of the November midterms. Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign video filmed outside the White House arguing that enforcement measures had gone too far.
The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.
Maria Elvira Salazar, U.S. Representative, via NPR
Salazar faces a tight contest in her district against Democratic challenger Eliott Rodríguez.
Despite local tensions, FIU polling shows strong leads for Florida Republicans on the ballot. In statewide races, Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 60% to 24% in the gubernatorial race among those expressing a choice, while Ashley Moody leads Angela Nixon 51% to 26% in the Senate contest.
Maximum Pressure on Havana Versus Humanitarian Relief
Underlying the continued support for the GOP is an enduring consensus on U.S. policy toward the Cuban government. The FIU poll recorded 77 percent backing for maximum economic pressure against Havana, alongside 65 percent support for oil import embargoes and 73 percent support for military intervention to overthrow the regime.
Simultaneously, large majorities of the community endorse humanitarian channels, including unrestricted sales of medicines, food distribution, and direct assistance to Cuba’s emerging private sector. Grenier summarized that Cuban Americans seek both a rigid stance against the island’s regime and a sustainable path forward for its people.
Early voting across Miami-Dade and Broward counties runs through November 1 at 7 p.m., with Election Day scheduled for November 3.