2023-10-24 22:46:37
The first presidential round in Argentina left an uncertain, probably even, scenario ahead of the second round on November 19. The Peronist Sergio Massa obtained almost seven percentage points more than the far-right Javier Milei (36.7% versus 29.9%, respectively), but the third in contention, Patricia Bullrich (23.8%), was already out of the presidential race , is supposed to be ideologically more akin to the eccentric economist.
The attempt to project the fate of the votes of the three candidates who were left out of the second round should not appeal to linear reasoning, according to how the electoral map turned out.
Bullrich, who entered politics in the revolutionary Peronism of the 1970s and transformed over the decades into a hard-line conservative, tuned in to Milei’s agenda since the pandemic, until recently. The rivalry was activated in the heat of the campaign and left some consequences in the form of complaints of slander and insults. Bullrich’s first messages After Sunday’s electoral collapse, they once again aimed at the supreme goal of “ending Kirchnerism.” suggesting an endorsement to whom he considered her days before the election as a “murderous terrorist terrorist” who had planted bombs in kindergartens, a false accusation.
In turn, former president Mauricio Macri, architect of the Together for Change alliance, for whom Bullrich was Minister of Security (2015-2019), was already explicit about his desire to coordinate forces with La Libertad Avanza, the party of Milei.
In any case, assuming that Bullrich voters will come en masse to support Milei, whether out of ideological affinity or to punish Kirchnerism, could lead to a mistake, since the electoral bases of both exhibit clear differences in terms of age, location geography and income.
In the city of Buenos Aires and the municipalities that make up the suburbs, where 13 million people live, the demographics of the Milei vote have been similar to those of classic Peronism: greater support in working-class and poor neighborhoods, less in elderly areas. income. In the case of Bullrich, the opposite.
In Buenos Aires and the suburbs, where 13 million people live, the demographics of the Milei vote have been similar to those of Peronism: greater support in working-class and poor neighborhoods, less in higher-income areas.
In many provinces, the trend was different: the competition between La Libertad Avanza and Juntos por el Cambio seems to have been for a similar type of voter. A reflection of this was that the conservative alliance collapsed in the central strip of the country, from the Atlantic to the Andes, the area with the greatest prosperity and productive diversity. Córdoba, Santa Fe, Mendoza, Entre Ríos and the interior of the province of Buenos Aires had been the core of Macrism in previous elections. In all of them, Bullrich was in second or third place on Sunday, a long way from the winner (Massa or Milei, as the case may be).
Added to the nuances regarding place of residence and income level among voters on both rights is what is presented as the biggest obstacle that Milei will encounter in gaining followers. Pre-election surveys agreed that the ultra economist found the greatest support among young people between 16 and 29 years old, while Bullrich predominated among those over 60, with a very weakened representation among those of younger age. Support for Massa, on the other hand, was described as equal across all age groups.
The role of radicals
A fourth and crucial element is that Together for Change acquired a profile leaning to the right, but not all of its voters are. That alliance is made up of the PRO (party founded by Macri), the traditional Radical Civic Union (UCR) and the minority Civic Coalition.
The UCR is similar to Peronism in that it has shown left and right sides throughout its history, although with slightly more attenuated abysses. His greatest references, Hipólito Yrigoyen, a century ago, and Raúl Alfonsín, bastion of the recovery of democracy and the Trial of the Juntas of the dictatorship, were despised on multiple occasions by Milei.
The radicals do not have a clear ideological framework today, but they do have institutional power in the provinces, among which they have just won half a dozen governorships. The UCR represents mostly urban and middle-class voters, archetypal in terms of valuing free public education and health, universes that Milei intends to privatize.
As it is, those who opted for Bullrich on October 22 will probably lean more towards Milei, but the proportion is not clear.
The 2.7% who voted for the Trotskyist Myriam Bregman, of the Left and Workers Front, will predictably support Massa or, at most, abstain.
Regarding the 6.8% obtained by the fifth candidate who reached the first round, the center-right Peronist dissident Juan Schiaretti, some unknowns arise. He is a Peronist vote, therefore, a defender of public education and schools and in favor of certain state arbitration of the economy. He is focused on the province governed by Schiaretti, Córdoba, second in number of inhabitants. It will be seen if that citizen returns to the Peronist fold or if his anti-Kirchnerist propensity prevails. Massa has in his favor that he is not generally seen as a subordinate of Cristina Fernández.
From TV to mobile phones
The Milei phenomenon was explained as a product of social networks. Although the anarcho-capitalist economist enjoyed an almost daily presence on prime-time television, it is a fact that his participations went viral from cell phone to cell phone. Hence, according to some interpretations, the penetration of the economist into the younger electorate.
The social media managers at La Libertad Avanza, generally in their twenties, were praised in the press for their ability to manage a star asset: TikTok.
As the professor of Communication at the universities of Quilmes and Buenos Aires Martín Becerra defined, Milei was above all a voice on the television screen that catalyzed “a previous trend of influencers, youtubers and accounts with anti-feminist, xenophobic, anti-progressive, anti-labor and environmental rights content and exaltation of violence against people and groups identified as enemies.”
The social media managers at La Libertad Avanza, generally in their twenties, were praised in the press for their ability to manage a star asset: TikTok
The cries against the “shitty lefties”, threats to step on rivals “like a cockroach”, comparisons to the socialists with “excrement”, disqualifications of the “imbecile who is in Rome, representative of the evil one” and a long etcetera happened for years without reply on the channels of the Clarín, La Nación and América groups.
On the contrary, the louder the stridency, the more successful the viralization was. Milei became excited about her own success and went on to double down. If he was asked about the privatization of hospitals and schools, he revealed his ideal of the buying and selling of streets and human organs.
The substance of the candidate excited his supporters, who were very active on networks. “Pissed old men” was the recurring stigma used by them to the detriment of the adults who adhered to Bullrich.
The strategy of Massa and the Pope
After the shock of the primaries in which Milei won with 30% of the votes, Peronism was activated to illuminate the consequences of the measures proposed by Milei. In particular, Massa was methodical in not entering into a competition of disqualifications, but he pointed out how the massive removal of subsidies, the payment of a fee for university, the price of food due to dollarization or unemployment resulting from the breaking of relations with China.
A second actor started to place Milei in front of the mirror of her words. The priests of Opción por los Pobres, with a privileged relationship with Francisco, took to the streets and organized masses to denounce Milei, in a political intervention unprecedented since the recovery of democracy. Francisco himself gave reports with unequivocal parallels between the rise of Milei and that of Adolf Hitler.
The priests in Opción por los Pobres, with a privileged relationship with Francisco, took to the streets and organized masses to denounce Milei, in a political intervention unprecedented since the recovery of democracy
Now that he is below Massa, the ultra candidate is forced to look for the “old pissers”, “useless” and “traitors” radicals, admirers of the “failed hyperinflationary Alfonsín”, “socialist human excrement”, faithful of the “imbecile”. who is in Rome”, women who do not equate abortion with the “murder of babies” and who do not consider that in Argentina there was “a war” instead of state terrorism.
Shocked by defeat, The La Libertad Avanza candidate appropriated Bullrich’s terminology to “end Kirchnerism” on the same election night, and this Tuesday he offered his former rival to join his hypothetical cabinet, without mentioning the accusations of “bomb-throwing terrorist.”
In a step that denotes desperation, the ultra went so far as to announce that it would hand over functions of the Ministry of Human Capital to “the left,” because “they are the ones who know the most.”
Viral content, previously an asset, became an undisguisable burden and an implacable tool that Peronism can activate without much effort.
The responses to their offers are not long in coming. “The left fights it and will fight it in all areas,” responded from the Left Front and the Workers. “With Milei, not even on the corner,” indicated a UCR group.
In a step that denotes desperation, the ultra went so far as to announce that it would hand over functions of the Ministry of Human Capital to ‘the left’, because ‘they are the ones who know the most’
Axel Kicillof, the left-wing Peronist who was one of the big winners of the election day when he was re-elected as governor of the province of Buenos Aires, described the situation: “Now we have a sweetened, advised Milei; He’s not going to be useful to you either. “This offering a ministry to Bregman and Bullrich makes him a clown.”
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