Major League Baseball is eyeing a significant shift in player development, potentially leaning more heavily on college programs. This move, discussed in a recent report, could reshape the path to the majors for aspiring baseball players.
Shifting the Development Landscape
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The next collective bargaining agreement could dramatically alter how baseball talent is cultivated.
- MLB is likely to reduce the size of the minor leagues and the draft.
- Colleges are increasingly seen as producing more advanced, data-savvy players.
- Teams are shifting focus toward drafting college players over high school prospects.
- A potential divergence in development paths could emerge between domestic and Latin American players.
The potential changes stem from discussions surrounding the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA). A core idea is for MLB to offload more development responsibilities to college baseball programs, a cost-saving measure for the league. This isn’t a new concept; MLB has been actively seeking closer ties with the NCAA for some time.
Downsizing the Minors and the Draft
One of the most significant proposals involves reducing the size of both the minor leagues and the draft. Since the last CBA, there’s been speculation about eliminating at least one Class A level. The current discussion suggests a potential cut of one level and a shortening of the draft to as few as ten rounds. For teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, this could mean the end of their affiliation with the Greensboro franchise.
Some believe MLB’s ambitions extend beyond these initial cuts. A long-term vision could involve streamlining operations to a single minor league affiliate per team, supplemented by training complex programs. These complexes would remain crucial for developing players coming from Latin America. However, the potential impact on the overall quality of play remains a concern.
The Rise of College Development
The shift towards college baseball is fueled by the perception that programs are producing more polished players than in the past. Improved coaching techniques and an increasing reliance on biometrics and data analytics are cited as key factors. Recent data indicates that draft picks are reaching the majors faster than ever, a trend attributed to enhanced college development programs.
MLB’s recent move to regulate data access in the minor leagues further illustrates this trend. While ostensibly aimed at ensuring equal access to data for all teams, the move could also rein in teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have been at the forefront of data collection and analysis. Simultaneously, centralizing data collection could benefit teams with less sophisticated systems, such as the Colorado Rockies. Interestingly, some top college programs are already ahead of certain MLB teams in terms of technological capabilities.
A Shift in Draft Strategy
Teams are increasingly prioritizing college players in the draft. In the 2025 draft, teams averaged 16.3 college players (including junior college) out of an average of 20.5 picks. The Miami Marlins exclusively selected college players, while the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Yankees chose all but one college player.
This trend could create opportunities for teams that continue to invest in high school prospects. The Milwaukee Brewers and the Pirates, both boasting highly-ranked farm systems, were among the teams that selected the most prep players. Milwaukee picked 12 of 22 prep players, while the Pirates selected seven of 21. Despite some unsigned picks, the Pirates demonstrated a commitment to prep players, signing four of their top five selections in 2024.
Divergent Paths for Domestic and International Players
If these changes materialize, a significant divergence in development paths could emerge between domestic and Latin American players. Some speculate that MLB might limit the draft to players with at least one year of college experience or professional ball. This would mean domestic players entering the draft at an older age than their Latin American counterparts.
The result could be a system where draftees progress through a team’s one or two full-season affiliates, while Latin American players spend 2-3 years developing at the complex. This scenario, coupled with advancements in college technology and coaching, would likely necessitate substantial investments in Dominican facilities – an investment that may not align with MLB’s current priorities.
