South Texas Latino voters who helped elect Republicans two years ago are emerging as a decisive swing bloc ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with competitive races testing whether those gains will hold amid economic pressures and immigration enforcement.
Bobby Pulido Challenges Monica De La Cruz in Texas’ 15th Congressional District
The 15th Congressional District stretches from the east of San Antonio down into the Rio Grande Valley, a majority-Latino territory where Hispanics account for about 81% of the population. Two years ago, President Donald Trump won the district by roughly 18 percentage points primarily through support from Latino voters, propelling Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz to victory.
Bobby Pulido bailed a man out of jail who sexually abused an 8-year-old girl. He took this predator to a middle school. Court records show that man then molested more kids in Hidalgo Co. while working for him.His excuse to CNN today: "we were drinking." pic.twitter.com/TtOPNGRpIm
Now, De La Cruz is seeking her third term in a contest rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, facing a challenge from Democrat Bobby Pulido who is stepping away from a music career of more than three decades to run for office. Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning Tejano musician, announced that his October 17 performance at Bert Ogden Arena will be his final concert regardless of the election’s outcome.
I’m one of her constituents, and I did not like that. So either I was going to be somebody that was going to sit on the sidelines and complain or I was going to do something about it.
Bobby Pulido, Democratic congressional candidate, via NPR
Pulido describes himself as an old-school Democrat who holds conservative views on social issues while supporting policies aimed at working families. His campaign has drawn large crowds, appearing alongside statewide Democratic candidates at rallies in rural South Texas. At the same time, De La Cruz has campaigned in Republican strongholds such as Cuero, promoting her support for Trump’s mass deportation and tax relief measures designed to address household affordability.
Economic Pressures and Immigration Enforcement Shape Voter Sentiment
While economic concerns over inflation and prices drove many South Texas voters toward Republican candidates in 2024, strategists on the ground note that voter motivations in the region remain fluid. Democratic strategist Jackie Rosa observed that the region represents one of the most swingy areas in the country, where voters are not beholden to a party and focus heavily on individual candidates and cultural alignment.
At the same time, shifts in federal enforcement have altered the local landscape. Democratic strategists point out that recent immigration raids have generated significant friction in the Valley. According to political analysts, voters in these majority-Hispanic districts maintain nuanced views on immigration policy, balancing commercial ties across the border with concerns over enforcement methods.
Republican political strategist Mike Madrid noted that while voter dissatisfaction with current economic conditions has created an opening for Democrats, it does not signal a permanent return to traditional party allegiance.
This is the least partisan group in America, the last real swing voter, and they’re motivated overwhelmingly by economics.
Mike Madrid, Republican political strategist, via NPR
Broader South Texas House Contests and Statewide Implications
The 15th District race is part of a broader cluster of competitive contests across South Texas. In the neighboring 34th District, Republican candidate Tano Tijerina is running against Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in another race rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Further west in the 28th District, Democratic incumbent U.S. Tano Tijerina is a former minor league baseball player and three-term Webb County judge who defected to the GOP.
| Congressional District | Incumbent | Challenger | Cook Report Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas’ 15th District | Monica De La Cruz (R) | Bobby Pulido (D) | Toss up |
| Texas’ 34th District | Vicente Gonzalez (D) | Tano Tijerina (R) | Toss up |
| Texas’ 28th District | Henry Cuellar (D) | Tano Tijerina (R) | N/A |
Early voting across Texas for the midterm elections is scheduled to run from October 19 through October 30, with Election Day set for November 3.