MW Football: Week 13 Playoff Picture & Previews

Mountain West Football: Championship Chaos Looms as Seven Teams Remain in Title Hunt

With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Mountain West Conference remains delightfully unpredictable, boasting a seven-way tie for contention in the championship game. San Diego State currently holds a slight edge, but a series of outcomes over the next two weekends could dramatically reshape the landscape.

The Aztecs can solidify their position with a win against San Jose State, but their fate isn’t solely in their hands. They’ll also need losses from Fresno State, New Mexico, and Boise State to guarantee a spot. “That is a lot of ‘ands’…,” one analyst noted, adding, “I think we go into the final weekend of the year with both spots still in the air.” The possibility of a seven-way tie at 5-3 in the league is very real, a fitting scenario for a season defined by upheaval.

All 12 conference teams are in action this week, with five of the six matchups set to air nationally. Here’s a breakdown of each game:

Friday, November 22: Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at UNLV Rebels (7:30 PM PT, FS1)

The line sits at UNLV -3 with an over/under of 64.5. This matchup carries significant weight in the Mountain West race. Hawaii is coming off a bye week after a dominant performance against San Diego State, while UNLV narrowly escaped with a double-overtime victory against Utah State.

The Rebels will prioritize establishing their running game, averaging 208 rushing yards in wins compared to roughly 35 yards fewer in defeats. Hawaii, however, has proven stout against the run, allowing just 132.5 yards per game and 128.4 in victories. Controlling the line of scrimmage will be crucial for UNLV.

Hawaii will aim to dictate a faster tempo, while UNLV will focus on generating turnovers. The Rebels have forced 18 turnovers this season, tied for 14th nationally, but have struggled to create takeaways recently, with only two in their last three games. Despite UNLV’s home-field advantage, Hawaii has been playing strong football and is projected to secure a road win.

Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Hawai’i

Saturday, November 23: Nevada Wolf Pack at Wyoming Cowboys (11:00 AM PT, MW Network)

Wyoming is favored by 6.5 points, with an over/under of 41.5. Nevada’s season has been largely defined by offensive struggles, but they experienced a surprising explosion against San Jose State last week, scoring seven touchdowns in a lopsided victory – nearly doubling their season total.

However, Wyoming’s defense presents a different challenge. While the Cowboys’ offense has faced some inconsistencies, their defense consistently performs at a high level. Nevada ranks 74th nationally against the run, and Wyoming’s Samuel Tote Harris is coming off a strong performance against Fresno State. Expect a heavy reliance on the ground game from Wyoming.

The Cowboys are expected to grind out a win, leveraging their defensive strength and a focused running attack.

Against the spread: Wyoming
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Wyoming

Saturday, November 23: New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons (4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports Network)

New Mexico is a 3.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 55.5. New Mexico is firmly in the conference title race, while Air Force is playing out the season with a 3-7 record. The Lobos’ strength lies in their run defense, ranking 17th nationally, allowing just over 105 yards per game.

Air Force, predictably, will lean heavily on their ground attack, currently third in the nation with 271.1 rushing yards per contest. While the Falcons will gain yards, New Mexico’s defense is expected to make it a challenge. The Lobos are also finding success through the air and on the ground with a rotating backfield.

New Mexico has won four consecutive games, their longest active winning streak in the Mountain West, and is poised to extend that streak to five, remaining in contention for the championship game.

Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: New Mexico

Saturday, November 23: Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos (4:00 PM PT, FS1)

Boise State is a significant 16.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 44.5. Colorado State has lost four straight games and has been outscored 121-46 during that stretch. Their offensive struggles are particularly pronounced, averaging just 73.6 rushing yards per game during the losing streak.

Boise State’s defense, which limited San Diego State to just 17 passing yards last week – their lowest total since 1996 – will pose a formidable challenge. The Broncos are expected to control the game with their ground attack and efficient quarterback play. Despite a recent two-game losing streak, Boise State is projected to win convincingly.

Against the spread: Boise State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State

Saturday, November 23: Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs (7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network)

Fresno State is favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under of 51.5. The Bulldogs have regained momentum with back-to-back wins and are firmly in the Mountain West hunt. Utah State, despite a double-overtime loss to UNLV last week, remains one of seven teams with a chance at the championship game.

Turnovers will be a key factor for Fresno State, which has been opportunistic in forcing 17 turnovers this season (24th nationally) but equally prone to giving the ball away with 16 turnovers committed. Utah State has been more careful with the ball, forcing 12 turnovers while committing only seven.

Fresno State’s stifling defense, allowing just 289.2 yards per game (12th nationally), will be tested by Utah State’s balanced offense, led by Bryson Barnes, who ranks 20th nationally in total offense. The Bulldogs are expected to secure a narrow victory at home.

Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State

Saturday, November 23: San Jose State Spartans at San Diego State Aztecs (7:30 PM PT, FS1)

San Diego State is a commanding 11.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 49.5. This game has the potential to be lopsided, with the Spartans coming off a poor performance against Nevada and the Aztecs playing their best football.

San Diego State’s defense, allowing just 12.5 points per game and ranking fourth nationally in pass efficiency, will be a significant test for San Jose State’s high-powered passing attack. The Aztecs are also expected to establish their running game, led by Lucky Sutton. San Diego State is projected to win decisively, limiting the Spartans’ offensive output.

Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State

Stephen Vilardo writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).