Myanmar Junta Moves Forward with December Elections Amidst Civil War and Regional Division
Myanmar’s military government is pressing ahead with plans for elections scheduled to begin on December 28, a move widely viewed as an attempt to secure global legitimacy despite ongoing conflict and a lack of control over the entire country. The planned vote is occurring against the backdrop of a brutal civil war that erupted following the military’s 2021 coup, and is already facing widespread condemnation from pro-democracy groups and human rights organizations.
A Nation Divided: Civil War and Rebel Boycotts
Since seizing power in February 2021, the Tatmadaw, as the Myanmar military is known, has faced increasing resistance. The junta has lost significant territory to pro-democracy guerrillas and powerful ethnic-minority armed groups, plunging the Southeast Asian nation into a protracted civil war. While the ruling generals present the elections as a pathway to reconciliation, rebel groups have vowed to boycott the vote in areas under their control, effectively rendering the process illegitimate in those regions.
Human rights groups have denounced the election as a “smokescreen” designed to perpetuate military rule. The vote is widely seen as lacking genuine democratic principles, with limited opportunities for meaningful opposition participation.
Regional Responses: A Spectrum of Endorsement and Caution
The international community remains deeply divided over the upcoming polls. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) appears to be adopting a “wait and see” approach, while key Asian powers, China and India, are signaling their endorsement of the junta’s plan.
According to a diplomat from an ASEAN country based in Yangon, the election is unlikely to address the fundamental issues facing Myanmar’s citizens. “The election was most likely intended to extend the military junta’s rule by using the military-backed USDP [Union Solidarity and Development Party] as a political stand-in,” the diplomat stated. “Furthermore, achieving political stability in Myanmar will be difficult because major opposition groups are either excluded from the general elections or have chosen not to participate due to repression or security concerns.”
Khin Zaw Win, director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, noted that support for the elections is largely confined to a small circle of nations. “Only a handful of countries that are solidly behind the junta, such as China, Russia, India and Belarus, have voiced support for the upcoming elections,” he said, adding that these countries are “prioritizing their own interests” over the prospect of genuine democracy in Myanmar. He further explained that India has consistently accepted the junta chief’s assurances since 2021, while China, though unfamiliar with electoral processes, seeks to maintain positive relations with the ruling regime.
Military Gains and Chinese Influence
In the lead-up to the elections, the Myanmar military has intensified its efforts to regain control of territory held by opposition forces. Over the past six months, the Tatmadaw has made significant territorial gains in northern Shan state, along a crucial highway connecting central Myanmar to China, including the strategically important army headquarters of Lashio.
A deal brokered by China with a major ethnic rebel group in October allowed the military to retake control of additional towns, including Mogok, a key ruby-mining hub in the Mandalay region. These gains represent a reversal of the substantial losses the military suffered during “Operation 1027,” a major anti-junta offensive launched by an alliance of ethnic armed groups at the end of 2023. China has also stepped in to broker ceasefires in January and February 2024.
Beyond mediation, Beijing is a major supplier of drones and aircraft to the junta, providing crucial aerial power in its battles against armed groups. At the same time, China is known to support some opposition groups in Myanmar, pursuing its own economic and security interests.
A Public Disillusioned by Conflict
The ongoing civil war, which began in February 2021, has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands and the displacement of over 3.3 million civilians. The resulting economic crisis and disruption of trade routes are causing widespread suffering.
“Now, they [the junta] believe they control most areas across the country. They feel they are in a position to hold the election, so they are doing it,” explained Zaw Naing, a 33-year-old resident of Kachin State. He added that the junta lacks legitimacy and is attempting to establish a civilian government through the elections, a move that would also facilitate China’s ongoing projects in the region.
However, the public displays little interest in the upcoming elections. Their primary desire is for an end to the civil war and the multiple crises plaguing the nation. “If this situation were to result in a civilian government — a manageable way out — people would certainly welcome it,” Zaw Naing stressed.
Yet, an anti-junta activist based in Shan state warned that the military is likely to intensify its repression following the elections, with civilians bearing the brunt of the increased violence. “The period after the election is more terrifying,” the activist said, fearing an increase in extrajudicial killings and arbitrary arrests. “When they can no longer defeat the EAOs [ethnic-armed organizations] and PDFs [people’s defense forces], I think they will target civilians more.”
The upcoming elections in Myanmar, therefore, appear poised to exacerbate existing tensions and further entrench the country’s political crisis, offering little hope for a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict and widespread suffering.
