New Zealand’s 2026 election polls show National at 29%, Labour steady at 27%, with ACT and NZ First having increased, while Opportunity remains a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations.
The latest 1News-Verian poll reveals a tight race in New Zealand’s 2026 election, with National trailing Labour by just 2 percentage points but maintaining a strategic edge in coalition possibilities. National’s 29% support, down 3 points from the previous week, contrasts with Labour’s 27% stability, while ACT and NZ First gained ground, each climbing 1 and 2 points respectively.
National ACT NZ First Hold 61 Seats
The poll highlights complex coalition math, with National, ACT, and NZ First collectively holding 61 seats if Te Pāti Māori wins four electorates.
Opportunity’s 6% support, down 1 point, remains critical for both left and right blocs. The party emphasized its average well over the 5% threshold, while National’s Nicola Willis acknowledged the race is very, very close. Te Pāti Māori fell to 0.1%, the lowest on record in the poll, though it continues a candidate-only campaign.
The party vote results, rounded to one decimal place, included National at 28.9%, Labour at 27.3%, Greens with 14.8%, ACT at 12.4%, NZ First at 10.0%, Opportunity at 6.3%, and Te Pāti Māori at 0.1%. From October 21 to October 25, 2026, a sample of 1,000 qualified voters was surveyed via mobile phone (500 participants) and online panels (500 participants). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.
In a specific seat projection, should Te Pāti Māori secure four seats and Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi retain her position, the total number of MPs in Parliament would reach 125. In this scenario, National would have 34 seats, ACT 15, NZ First 12, and Labour would have 33 seats, the Greens 18, and Te Pāti Māori 4.
Should Te Pāti Māori drop to a single seat, the Parliament would consist of 121 MPs, granting the right bloc a majority with 61 seats. National’s 28.9% party vote translates to 34 seats, ACT’s 12.4% to 15, and NZ First’s 10.0% to 12. Labour’s 27.3% would yield 33 seats, the Greens’ 14.8% 18, and Opportunity’s 6.3% eight.
Leadership Rankings and Voter Uncertainty
Christopher Luxon’s 24% in preferred prime minister rankings, up four points, marks his strongest showing in two years, while Chris Hipkins edged up to 18%.
The poll, conducted between October 21–25, involved 1,000 voters with a ±3.1% margin of error. Earlier surveys, including the Post-Freshwater Poll, had placed Opportunity at 5.4%, just above the 5% threshold for parliamentary entry. Labour's 28.7% and National's 27.6% in a September poll highlight the volatility of the race.
Interest.co.nz reported the Green Party at 14.3%, NZ First at 11.8%, and ACT at 9%. The Taxpayer’s Union-Curia Poll from this month indicated National at 28.5%, Labour at 28.2%, and Opportunity below the 5% threshold at 4.8%.
Winston Peters was down one point to 7%, level with Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. ACT leader David Seymour was on 6%. The poll had 1000 responses, half from mobile phones and half from an online panel. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
The November 7 general election remains the critical moment, with both parties emphasizing ground campaigns over poll fluctuations.
We’ve laid out positive, practical solutions, and we’re grateful for the support,
David Seymour, ACT leader