Roughly 400,000 special votes remain to be counted after a nationwide general election on Saturday. New Zealand’s ruling centre-right National Party and the main opposition Labour Party are separated by just a few thousand votes. The country faces weeks of political limbo.
Knife-Edge Margins Create Overhang
Initial counting from the New Zealand Electoral Commission showed both major parties polling just under 30 percent of the popular vote. More than 95 percent of ballots are counted.
The preliminary count placed Labour at 710,330 party votes. National secured 706,680 votes. That gives a raw margin of 3,650 votes.
That margin was even tighter at roughly 1,500 votes just before 10 p.m. on Saturday night. Nearly 3.8 million people were eligible to participate out of a population of 5.6 million. Almost 1.7 million voters had already cast ballots by Thursday ahead of election day. Across the capital of Wellington, fog choked the city as voters faced an election defined by a flat and weary mood.
Despite trailing slightly in the raw party vote count, National provisionally holds 42 seats to Labour’s 36 due to winning individual electorates. Christopher Luxon told supporters in Auckland that his party had secured a pathway to form a government. As a politician, would I love 50.1 per cent?
Luxon said when talking to journalists in Auckland. Ultimately, New Zealanders have given us the biggest seats in parliament, 42 seats as it stands today, and a pathway to form a government.
Luxon urged voters to stick with the plan. His party is once again the largest party in parliament. National crashed to 29.2 percent of the popular vote. In 2023, it stood at 38.1 percent. Its current coalition partners, the right-wing-libertarian ACT party and the nationalist New Zealand First Party, increased their vote shares to 10.9 percent and 9.8 percent respectively.
Parliament is set to expand to 130 seats. This makes it the largest in the nation’s history. Widespread vote-splitting drove an unusual seat disparity. Parties won more electorate seats than their party vote share strictly dictated. This caused a record-breaking parliamentary overhang of 11 seats, according to preliminary results.
Millions of people will vote in this election but the party vote margin between the two “major parties” could fit in Auckland’s St James Theatre. As of 9.49pm National is at 29.43% or 528,172 votes while Labour is at 29.35% or 526,730 votes. That's 1442 votes.
Kingmaker Opportunity Enters Parliament
The Opportunity Party stated it is willing to work with either of the major parties.
It is absolutely surreal to feel like we are actually in this position,
Qiulae Wong said. While Luxon previously ruled out cooperating with the Opportunity Party, Wong said she would look to negotiate with the party that could form a government.
Economic Pressures Drive Historic Low Major Party Vote
Electoral data reveals a profound fracture in the electorate. The rising cost of living, general economic problems, high gas prices, stubbornly high unemployment rates, and healthcare challenges drove this split. For the first time since New Zealand embraced its Mixed-Member Proportional voting system in 1996, the two major parties fell below 60 percent of the combined party vote.
Reflecting on the national mood, Helen Clark told the BBC that economic pressures and unfulfilled political promises have damaged public confidence. There's a feeling that, really, there's no-one who cares,
Clark said. The situation leads to a crisis of confidence about what New Zealand is and where it’s going. This perfect storm is driving about 180 people to leave the country every day.
Helen Clark has called for a thorough review into the country’s electoral, campaign funding, and voting laws following the extraordinary election result. Clark raised concerns over disenfranchising enrolment changes. She pointed to a distortion of the electoral system. She noted a lack of oversight over campaign funding. Clark stated that New Zealand could well be deemed by observers to have had a flawed election.
Final Election Results Await Verified November Count
Neither major bloc claimed a definitive victory on Saturday night. Chris Hipkins addressed supporters in Upper Hutt, emphasizing the need for cooperation. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said,
Hipkins told the crowd. Hipkins also noted that every vote matters. He stressed that the next parliament will require everyone to compromise, work together, and find common ground.
The definitive shape of Parliament will remain uncertain until the Electoral Commission releases the final verified results on November 27.