The cereal harvest for the 2022-2023 agricultural campaign should be around 55 million quintals, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections, based on data available as of March 10, 2023.
Despite a relative recovery experienced by the agricultural campaign, thanks to the last rains, “the production of the three main cereals would be limited by the area sown which would not have exceeded 3.65 million hectares according to the Department of Agriculture”, explained the Central Bank at the end of the first quarterly meeting of the year 2023 of its Council held on Tuesday March 21.
Thus, after a contraction of 15% in 2022, the public body deduces that “agricultural added value would increase by 1.6% in 2023, before improving by 6.9% in 2024 under the assumption of a return to an average production of 75 million quintals”.
Globally, FAO’s first estimates indicate a decline in wheat production
As a reminder, in its forecast economic budget for the year 2023, made public at the start of the year, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) had indicated that “agricultural activity would have shown a significant drop in cereal production during the 2021/2022 agricultural campaign, attributable to the rainfall deficit”.
Internationally, in comparison with the year 2022, the first production prospects for the 2023 harvests announce a decline in world wheat production, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ( FAO).
Despite this decline compared to the previous year, the UN agency nevertheless forecasts an overall result of 784 million tonnes, which would be the second highest level ever recorded.
According to her projections, “significant production is expected in North America as farmers increase planted acreage in the face of high grain prices,” she explained.
Recall that “in North Africa, rainfall deficits have had a negative impact on crops in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, which has eroded the outlook for wheat production in 2023, when production was already reduced previous years”, as noted by the FAO on its official website.
It should also be recalled that the International Organization announced at the beginning of March that it had revised upwards its projections for world cereal production in 2022.
Indeed, its latest forecasts for world cereal production for 2022 have been raised by 9 million tonnes and therefore now increased to 2,774 million tonnes. This corresponds to a further decline of 1.3% year-on-year.
The FAO specifies that “the largest part of this upward revision concerns rice and, to a lesser extent, coarse grains”.
It should be noted that in the countries of the northern hemisphere, production prospects for coarse grain crops in 2023 are generally favorable and total maize areas should reach a record level in Brazil.
According to the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Bulletin, world cereal utilization in 2022-2023 is expected to reach 2,780 million tonnes. This would result in a decline of 0.6% compared to the previous season, mainly justified by the expected contraction in the use of all the main coarse grains.
The same source predicts that “world grain stocks at the end of 2023 are expected to fall by 1.2% from their opening levels and fall to 844 million tonnes”. The UN agency expects drawdowns on coarse grain stocks and, to a lesser extent, rice stocks, to offset the projected increase in wheat stocks.
Alain Bouithy