One NationS Surge Threatens to Reshape Australian Politics
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Australia’s political landscape is undergoing a critically important shift, as One Nation experiences a surge in support, moving from the fringes to a genuine electoral force. Once viewed as a potential kingmaker for the Coalition, the party now poses a direct threat to both major parties, fueled by economic anxieties and cultural grievances.
From Coalition Ally to Formidable Opponent
Just after the federal election last year, a narrative emerged within the Coalition suggesting that rising support for One nation, led by Pauline Hanson, could deliver crucial preferences to help the Liberals win key seats in working-class areas.A Liberal insider reportedly stated that “Aunty Pauline is now acceptable,” signaling a willingness to leverage Hanson’s party as an electoral asset. However, this strategy failed spectacularly on election day, as the opposition leader Peter Dutton’s suburban strategy faltered.
nine months later, One Nation remains a prominent factor in Australian politics, but it’s role has fundamentally changed. The party is no longer seen as a potential ally, but as a genuine competitor. Years of being relegated to the extreme edges of the political spectrum are fading as financial hardship and disillusionment with established parties – particularly the Coalition – propel Hanson’s right-wing populism into the mainstream.
An expression of Dissatisfaction
Recent polling data underscores this dramatic shift. The latest Guardian Essential poll revealed One Nation’s primary vote at 22%, a threefold increase from the 2025 election and just three percentage points behind the Coalition. While some analysts caution against interpreting this as a firm voting intention, given the next federal election isn’t due until 2028, the rise in support is undeniable.
“The rise in support for One Nation is not trivial,” said Peter Lewis,a director of Essential Media. “It reflects shifts occurring elsewhere in the UK, Europe, and the US where populist movements are repudiating the mainstream parties’ failures to harness global capitalism.”
Kos Samaras, a former Labour strategist and current pollster with Redbridge Group, argues that One Nation is becoming a destination for voters focused on cultural issues. “Over time, particularly over the last decade, they have started to experience financial stress and a decline of living standards,” Samaras explained. “They have now given up on the Coalition, which was the party they used to support because they thought they managed the economy better for them. They are now just voting on cultural grievances and One Nation is absolutely the vehicle for that.”
A breakdown of the Essential numbers confirms this trend, showing that 23% of respondents who voted for the Coalition in 2025 now intend to support One Nation, a significant shift to the political right.While a smaller proportion – 8% – of former Labor voters have also switched to Hanson, the movement from the Coalition is far more substantial.
Complacency and the Right Flank
John Roskam, a former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs, believes the Liberal party has underestimated the risk of losing voters to One Nation. “The Liberal party has been pretty complacent about those challenges because they’ve convinced themselves that Liberal voters couldn’t bear to vote for One Nation,” roskam stated. “It’s now pretty clear they can.”
One Nation’s appeal is also being bolstered by internal divisions within the Liberal party.Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce recently publicly criticized the Liberal party’s direction, and MP Llewellyn Boyce expressed concerns that a split from the Liberals would leave the party exposed to a “right-flank onslaught” from One Nation. Boyce dismissed speculation of defecting to One Nation but hinted that others might follow Joyce and Hanson.
Hanson’s chief-of-staff, James Ashby, confirmed the party is actively recruiting and plans to make a “significant proclamation” upon parliament’s return. The details of this announcement remain undisclosed.
Despite a history of internal disunity and disorganization, One Nation’s latest surge presents a unique opportunity. Weather it will ultimately consolidate into lasting political power or dissolve into chaos remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the Australian political landscape is being fundamentally reshaped.
