One Nation Gains Momentum in Australia, Threatening Liberal Party Dominance
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Australia’s political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with One Nation experiencing a surge in support and posing a growing challenge to the established Liberal and National parties. Recent polling data and internal party assessments suggest the far-right populist movement, led by Pauline Hanson, is capitalizing on voter disillusionment and could reshape the country’s political future.
Rising Tide for Hanson’s Party
Warren Pickering, Victorian president of One Nation, expressed a confident outlook while addressing supporters in Melbourne’s south-east, stating it is “inevitable” that the party will secure a lower-house seat in Victoria. While One Nation secured its first upper-house seat in the state at the 2022 election, it has historically struggled to gain traction in lower-house races, garnering only 0.2% of the primary vote in the last poll. However, Pickering believes there has “never been more appetite for One Nation than there is right now.”
This optimism is fueled by a broader national trend. One Nation doubled its upper house representation at the federal election by winning two additional Senate seats. Subsequent national opinion polls conducted over the past six weeks indicate continued growth in support for Hanson’s party. The latest Essential poll in September revealed a primary vote of 13% for One Nation, surpassing the Greens at 11% and more than doubling the 6.4% recorded in May.
Coalition Facing a Crisis of Confidence
The rise of One Nation coincides with a decline in support for the Liberal-National Coalition, which has fallen from 31.8% at the election to 27% in the latest Essential poll. This erosion of support is prompting internal debate within the Liberal party regarding its future direction.
According to one analyst, the Liberal party is “quickly making itself redundant” and risks becoming a minor party within the next five to seven years if it fails to adapt, mirroring its current position in Western Australia. Pickering suggested that this presents a clear “opportunity” for One Nation to attract disaffected conservative voters.
Preference Deals and Shifting Alliances
Pickering confidently asserted that the Liberals would be “guaranteed” to pursue a preference deal with One Nation, stating, “they need us.” However, a spokesperson for the Victorian Liberal party denied any discussions had taken place with One Nation, and the latter did not respond to requests for comment.
This apparent disconnect highlights the complex and often fraught relationship between the established parties and the rising populist force. The potential for formal or informal alliances is a key factor in the evolving political dynamic.
A Global Phenomenon
The increase in support for One Nation is not an isolated event, according to Barnaby Joyce, former Nationals leader. He described it as part of a global “phenomenon” driving the rise of far-right populist movements, citing examples such as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Donald Trump in the United States, and similar parties in Italy, France, and Germany.
While One Nation’s support remains lower than that of Reform UK, which currently polls at 31% – 10 points ahead of Labour and 14 ahead of the Conservatives – Joyce acknowledged that Australia is “probably last to this party of [there being] more of a challenge to the conservative side of politics.”
Internal Liberal Divisions Emerge
The threat posed by One Nation is exacerbating existing divisions within the Liberal party. Andrew Hastie recently resigned from the frontbench, citing concerns about a “fragmentation” of the rightwing vote – specifically, the loss of voters to One Nation and other fringe parties. He advocated for a more nationalist platform, including abandoning net zero targets, reducing immigration, and revitalizing domestic manufacturing.
However, his views are not universally shared within the party. Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg argued that attempting to emulate “marginal parties” like One Nation is “not a winning strategy.” He emphasized the importance of appealing to the center of the political spectrum and warned against prioritizing the concerns of a “small group of society” over the “national interest.”
Bragg conceded that the Liberal party faces “structural factors” hindering its ability to reclaim the middle ground, including an increasingly “unrepresentative” membership base and a faction that prioritizes ideological purity over electoral success.
Shifting Support Base and Future Prospects
Analysis of recent Essential polls indicates that One Nation’s support base remains strongest in Queensland – Hanson’s home state – among voters over 55, and in areas outside major cities. Support among younger voters (18-34) is significantly lower, at just 7%, suggesting that the party’s hardline stances on immigration and climate change are not resonating with this demographic.
Despite these limitations, One Nation claims to have experienced a 60% increase in paid-up members since the election, and is actively establishing local branches to strengthen its grassroots organization, including in Tamworth, within Barnaby Joyce’s electorate.
Dr. Jill Sheppard, a politics lecturer at Australian National University, believes One Nation is “objectively growing in popularity,” drawing parallels to the early stages of the Greens’ rise to prominence. She noted that a lack of substantial donor and institutional support prevents One Nation from posing an “existential” threat to the Liberals and Nationals, as Reform UK does to the UK Conservatives. However, she emphasized that the prospect of losing votes to Hanson will force the Coalition to “think hard about how they want to pitch themselves at the next election.”
One Nation itself is tempering expectations, acknowledging that polls can be misleading and that support may be fragmented across smaller parties. However, the party’s leadership remains confident that “the ground is shifting.”
