2023-12-31 07:00:31
Vladimir Pastukhov. Still from video
Political scientist – about the military results of the year.
“After some reflection, I decided that this year deserves to be summed up a day earlier, leaving December 31st for dreams, hopes, or at least oblivion,” writes Vladimir Pastukhov. – Our world is too big and complex, and there is a lot going on in it for me to take on the responsibility of signing for all of humanity.
I will limit myself to assessments of what worries me more and what I feel and understand better:
First. For Russia and Ukraine, this was a year of tug-of-war, as a result of which the “teams” remained in their places, despite the superhuman strain of forces.
To use a very superficial analogy, for me this year turned out to be similar to 1942 on the Eastern Front of World War II. Everything is viscous, everything is ambiguous, trends cannot be guessed, but at the same time, somewhere inside, an invisible gigantic work is being done, the fruits of which will make themselves felt next year.
Second. On a purely military level, the year did not bring Russia any significant military successes (the capture of Bakhmut and Marinka can hardly be considered such). However, since inflated (if not to say utopian) expectations from the Ukrainian offensive in the South were fueled in the information field, a subjective impression is created that the year turned out to be more successful for the Russian armed forces.
Objectively, this is not so – neither side achieved its military goals.
Third. Russia’s success is more likely to be found in the political and psychological fields than at the front. By moving to strategic defense in a timely manner and preparing the population morally for the prospect of a long, multi-year war, Putin secured more comfortable conditions of rule for himself than Zelensky, who has yet to accomplish both next year.
However, this does not mean that Zelensky will not be able to rebuild. This means that he will have to go through a period of turbulence that Putin has already overcome.
Fourth. What played into the hands of the Kremlin this year was the fact that the West was not ready to “fit into” the long-term confrontation with Russia. Many in the West believe that the fundamental task of “bleeding” the Russian Federation and depriving it of a strategic potential capable of threatening the key interests of the West has already been solved: Russia has shown that it does not have the resources for a large-scale and prolonged war with an enemy more amateurish in terms of weapons and finances than Ukraine.
This is partly why the West has sharply reduced its aid to Ukraine, thus pushing it to seek painful compromises.
Fifth. It can be assumed that in 2024 we will experience a much more dynamic development of events with sharp turns and even reversals. We are getting ready to dive into a thriller with an unpredictable ending.
Next year will be the year of opening boils. The inevitable consequence of this procedure is pus, which will be in abundance. But at the same time relief will come. The trajectory of history will begin to be visible, which so far can only be felt as a thread-like pulse.
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