2024-04-04 16:42:48
The body responsible for analyzing the pension system should put on new glasses to form an opinion on its health. This Thursday, members of the Pension Orientation Council (COR) opened the way for economic hypotheses that are less favorable than in the past to be tested to judge the balance of the system. The “reference scenario” put forward will not, however, be the darkest.
In detail, the next COR analysis of the French pension system should test the hypothesis of an increase in hourly productivity of between 0.4% and 1.3%. In its latest reports, the scenarios retained by the body in this area ranged between 0.7% and 1.6%.
Vigilant unions
The evolution of productivity is key to the balance of the pension system because it determines salary levels and therefore contributions financing pensions. Noting “the structural slowdown” of this indicator, the Council secretariat, recently led by the economist Gilbert Cela, proposed testing less optimistic scenarios than those retained until now in view of the very clear slowdown in productivity gains in recent years. last years.
Well received in the employers’ camp, this proposal was received much more coldly by the unions which are also members of the COR (alongside parliamentarians and members of the administration). “We cannot say that artificial intelligence will not have an increasing effect on productivity,” argues Pierre-Yves Chanu of the CGT.
Behind the technical debates on productivity, which agitate many economists, it is the analysis of the possible need for a new pension reform which is at stake. Hence the vigilance of the unions which have formed a united front against the extension of the legal retirement age to 64 decided last year. Although the discussions held on this subject this Thursday were long, they remained courteous, according to several participants.
Compromise
To the satisfaction of the unions, the “reference scenario” which should be put forward by the COR to present the prospects of the system will rely on an increase in productivity of 1% per year (hypothesis already adopted by the government for its 2023 reform ).
If he claims to have “never seen such a clear divide in the COR”, Pierre-Yves Chanu notes “that we took the debate into account”. “We have noted the desire for a compromise,” declares Michel Beaugas of Force Ouvrière. However, these representatives still intend to turn to their union to obtain a definitive green light.
Unless disavowed, the COR should therefore also put forward a “reference scenario” in the future. The body’s latest report was more than 300 pages, and putting several scenarios “on the same level” makes the analysis of the financial situation of pensions “complex”, argued the COR secretariat to defend this presentation.
On the union side, however, some argued for continuing to present several trajectories simultaneously to account for the complexity of analyzing the system. “It’s very important that we have nailed down the idea of a central storyline. This will encourage the appropriation of the results of the report by all stakeholders,” reacts Renaissance MP Marc Ferracci.
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