Thanksgiving Travel Threatened by Approaching Polar Vortex and Record Cold
A major winter storm is poised to disrupt Thanksgiving travel plans across a vast portion of the United States, with forecasts predicting colder and snowier conditions than usual. The anticipated weather system threatens to snarl what the AAA projects will be record-breaking holiday traffic, impacting millions of travelers.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued warnings about a potential expansion of the polar vortex – a region of cold air surrounding the Arctic – southward. This, combined with other atmospheric factors, is expected to bring “cooler than normal temperatures” from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic states this Thanksgiving week.
“Below normal temperatures are favored for the Central and Northern U.S., including northern parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Great Plains, parts of Texas, and the interior Mid-Atlantic,” the NWS stated in recent social media updates.
Driving this extreme weather event is not only the polar vortex but also the Madden-Julian Oscillation, described by the NWS as an eastward-moving “pulse” of atmospheric disturbances. Coupled with the ongoing La Niña pattern, these factors are predicted to “drive winter-like conditions across much of the U.S. late November into early December.”
The timing of this cold snap is particularly concerning, coinciding with peak holiday travel. Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to travel by road for Thanksgiving, while the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) anticipates screening approximately 17.8 million air passengers starting this Tuesday. The TSA projects over 3 million travelers will pass through security checkpoints on Sunday alone.
The NWS indicates the extreme weather could begin as early as Tuesday, with the area affected and the confidence level of the forecast increasing between November 26th and 30th.
A “moderate risk of heavy snow” is forecast for the Central Rockies from November 29th to December 1st, and for the Upper Great Lakes and the Interior Northeast from November 29th to 30th. This snowfall potential is largely attributed to lake-effect snow, according to the NWS’ Climate Prediction Center. “Broader slight risks cover much of the Rockies (Nov 29-Dec 5), and the Northern Tier corridor from the North Central U.S. to northern New England (Nov 29-Dec 2),” the Climate Prediction Center added. Cooler temperatures are likely to persist over the northern tier of states at least through mid-December.
Experts suggest that excursions of the polar vortex may be becoming more frequent as global temperatures rise, though this remains an active area of scientific investigation. “Disruption of the Stratospheric polar vortex is a natural process, it happens almost every or every few winters,” a Tampa Bay meteorologist noted. Scientists are actively researching the role of climate change and Arctic Amplification in potentially increasing the frequency of these events.
The potential for increased polar vortex disruptions underscores the complex relationship between a warming planet and extreme weather events, prompting further study into the long-term implications for seasonal weather patterns.
