The new year 2022 could be a turning point in the fight against coronavirus – such hypotheses arose in connection with the spread of the new Omicron strain, the emergence of new medicines and the expansion of vaccination. However, scientists gave optimistic forecasts on the eve of the outgoing year, but the situation did not improve – rather, on the contrary. We talked with biologist, professor at George Mason University (Virginia, USA) Ancha Baranova about how the situation with coronavirus can change in the new year.
“According to the recent forecast of the famous American scientist of Russian origin, a specialist in the field of evolutionary biology Alexei Kondrashov, Omicron and Delta can settle in the human population on equal terms,” says Ancha Baranova. – In other words, it may happen that Omicron will not replace its predecessor, but will become a new stable SARS-CoV-2 line.
Already, due to multiple mutations in the S-protein, Omicron has deviated so much from the standard variant that it began to move towards the subspecies. Let us recall that one of the most important criteria for the appearance of a new species in viruses is a change in the receptor. In Omicron, the S-protein changed so much that it began to bind the receptor in mice, but, unfortunately, it did not lose its affinity with the human receptor.
A unique, bad situation, indicating that if not a species, then a subspecies is being formed. Much like dengue fever, where 4 viral subspecies circulate independently of each other.
The impression is that there is sympatric (sympatry – the ability of two species or forms to coexist in the same territory – “MK”) the evolution of the coronavirus, with it the emergence of new species occurs in populations with overlapping or overlapping areas.
We have the same people – the difference will be formed due to environmental conditions (for example, one virus will multiply more in the lungs, and the other in the nasopharynx). The near future will show how true these assumptions of Kondrashov are.
– Is the option with the displacement of “Delta” by “Omicron” still being considered?
“We’ll be very lucky if this happens. But rather, the dynamic equilibrium that the evolutionist is talking about will be established. Both strains will coexist together, for example, as a white hare and a brown hare in the suburbs. That is, these viruses will in turn raise their heads in our population. The proportion of people with cross-immunity will matter.
– What is this immunity?
– This is a residual immunity that some people who have previously suffered from one subspecies of coronavirus already have, and therefore are slightly resistant to another. Well, or vaccinated against one subspecies, and therefore does not get very sick when infected with another. Those who have not yet been ill with covid, or have been ill for a long time, in order not to become infected with Omicron again, need to be vaccinated.
– Question: what vaccine and how often?
– If we achieve parity between Omicron and Delta, then in order to increase protection with existing vaccines, apparently, it will be necessary to be vaccinated every three, or even every two months.
– What could prevent the more virulent Omicron from ousting Delta?
– Now in South Africa, where Omicron was identified, the incidence of it has declined, but not to zero. It should be borne in mind that “Delta” has not gone anywhere – people continue to travel and spread different strains. Even if “Delta” disappears in South Africa, it will be brought there again in a couple of days. There is another risk factor: Omicron now has the ability to infect mice. Who knows what is the dynamics of viral infection in the body of wild, non-laboratory mice, which, moreover, are represented in many species?
– Due to such variability of the virus, many believe that vaccines created for old strains are useless …
“They are wrong. In any case, it is not necessary to refuse vaccination. Even more dangerous is the position of those people who, having heard about the lesser pathogenicity of “Omicron”, seek to get infected with it as soon as possible instead of vaccination …
– So the less pathogenicity of this strain is recorded?
– So far we are really seeing something like weakening. It is still impossible to predict what will happen next.
– How do you feel about the initiative to give people a QR code in the presence of a certain level of antibodies?
– Very good. After all, it so happens that a person is forced to vaccinate, and after an asymptomatic illness he has a high level of antibodies. At the same time, it is really unnecessary to get vaccinated.
But the difficulty here is that for now we can only assume what level of antibodies can be considered sufficient so as not to be vaccinated. There are still very few scientific works on this topic. In addition, laws in a pandemic are being formed for the needs of public health, which cannot yet guarantee everyone free testing for antibodies, as well as the fact that the level of antibodies chosen by the administrators will surely protect citizens.
Firstly, as already mentioned, we do not know exactly how many antibodies should be, but only approximately, and secondly, even if we know, the state will not have enough money to periodically do a rather expensive test for everyone. So I understand the ministries of health of those countries that are not in a hurry, taking into account the antibodies of citizens. However, for each individual person who can afford to measure antibodies, such knowledge can be not only useful, but also life-saving.
– I heard that work on determining a sufficient amount of antibodies for an immune response has already begun to appear abroad and in Russia. According to one of them, to which Academician Alexander Gintsbrug recently referred, 300 BAU is enough to protect against the “Delta” strain, according to other sources – 450 BAU …
– The fact of the matter is that in such works we are talking about “Delta”. For Omicron, the level of antibodies should be much higher.
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