The Turkish president almost mumbles when he announces the supposed end of his era: the local elections on March 31st are the finale for him, his “last time.” Normally, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a loud, gifted speaker. His sermons are indoctrinating and act like political meditations on followers. This time it’s different. During his speech to a party-affiliated youth organization in Istanbul on Friday, he spoke more quietly than usual, less melodically and seemed listless.
No wonder. Because what Erdoğan says could mark the beginning of a turning point for Turkey.
However, it is the fourth time that Erdoğan has announced a political withdrawal shortly before elections. Fifteen years ago he said: “God willing, 2011 will be my last parliamentary candidacy.” Three years later, he promised to run for the presidency of his AKP party “one last time.” A few months before the 2023 presidential election, he again asked the Turkish electorate to “vote on our behalf one last time.” So his latest “last time” is not the first “last time”.
That’s why some observers don’t buy his current statement. Social media is full of comments along the lines of: “If you lie once, you won’t believe it.” But it is not that simple.
A new era began again and again
In 2009, Erdoğan only promised not to run for parliament again. He stuck to that. Instead, he was only elected Prime Minister and later President of Turkey. From his point of view, he may also have fulfilled his promise from 2012 that he would only run again as head of his Islamic conservative AKP. In 2014 he became president. According to current laws, he was no longer allowed to hold party leadership. Only when Erdoğan changed the constitution in 2017 was he able to take over the post again. Because he completely changed the country’s parliamentary system with the reform, a new era began for the long-time politician. From his point of view, Erdoğan’s resignation statements were not wrong, but promising.
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Then, a few months before the presidential election in May 2023, he said: “We ask the nation one last time to vote on our behalf.” He spoke in the plural and gave an outlook on the fate of his party. Since its 22nd year of existence, the AKP has been the voice of those who have had none for decades. It created an Islamic-conservative nouveau riche elite. This would have been unthinkable under previous governments.
The AKP has many factions
But the AKP has long been seen as divided from within. In background discussions, even early companions complain about the current course and are desperately looking for a way out. Many are no longer satisfied with their leader. Many different factions gather around him. He stands in the middle, the image of the party. Without Erdoğan, there would be no AKP – at least not one that is as successful as it is now.
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The current statement about the withdrawal also contains a possible announcement. In fact, he promised that the local elections at the end of March would be his finale “in accordance with the powers granted by law.” The president has been planning to change the constitution for some time – presumably to secure his position. But he still lacks a majority in parliament for the reform. He is still standing alone in a wide area. There are also increasing rumors that he is sicker than he pretends. In his circle there is talk of epilepsy and sometimes cancer, which is supposed to be back. Nobody dares to say anything publicly, there is no official information.
His power has been waning since the coup
Whether Erdoğan’s health is deteriorating is speculative, but his declining political power is less so. Observers attribute this, for example, to the fact that he did not manage to send one of his favorite candidates into the race for mayor of Istanbul. That’s not surprising. Erdoğan has been losing power since the June 2015 coup attempt. He is still officially president, head of government and commander-in-chief of the army all in one person. But every decision in the country has to go through his desk. This leads to a backlog of reforms – and that creates resentment.
Erdoğan has become a puppet of his own system. For years, for example, he had built up direct financial help for supporters. In addition, people were placed in positions who had the right party membership but did not have nearly the same qualifications as their predecessors. It is now clear to even old allies that something like this cannot go well in the long term. The head of the Islamic YRP party publicly announced his political support a few days ago. The YRP is the political contact point for supporters of the Milli Görüş movement and has so far made up part of Erdoğan’s core electorate.
High inflation fuels discontent
Even far from party politics, discontent has risen sharply in recent months and there is a quiet consensus among the otherwise polarized population. The economic situation is one of the hardest things. The lira currency is constantly losing value. The previously low meat prices alone are on average about twice as high as in Germany. Nobody knows whether they will be able to afford another portion of meat tomorrow. Workers are disappointed because they can afford even less than before since their minimum wage was increased by almost 50 percent in January. Business bosses are restless: They are waiting in vain for a massive increase in the key interest rate.
Bar associations are angry because another constitutional ruling was recently not recognized. Parents are concerned because educational standards in public schools have declined rapidly. Richer parents are angry because the government has recently massively increased the costs of private schools. Young people are confused because many no longer see any perspective. For the same reason, several thousand specialists left Turkey last year. Against the will of the majority in the country, around two hundred thousand migrants from countries such as Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq have been naturalized.
The list of dissatisfaction goes on. Turkish society is in an eerie and calm state of tolerance. Erdoğan knows that a storm is brewing. His withdrawal statement is intended to reassure people for the time being. But it also sends a message to important players at home and abroad that he is aware of his dilemma and is looking for a way out. As he himself said, that could come before the next presidential election in 2028.
The Turkish president almost mumbles when he announces the supposed end of his era: the local elections on March 31st are the finale for him, his “last time.” Normally, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a loud, gifted speaker. His sermons are indoctrinating and act like political meditations on followers. This time it’s different. During his speech to a party-affiliated youth organization in Istanbul on Friday, he spoke more quietly than usual, less melodically and seemed listless.
No wonder. Because what Erdoğan says could mark the beginning of a turning point for Turkey.