2024-07-24 17:06:05
According to the spokesman of the Ukrainian Navy, Dmitry Pletenchuk, Russia also withdrew its last Black Sea Fleet warship from Crimea in mid-July. Peter Dickinson, an expert on Ukraine at the Atlantic Council think tank, says the “humiliating” retreat reveals how Moscow’s so-called red lines have no meaning, or that Putin’s nuclear threats are just an attempt to instill fear.
Footage shows Ukrainian drones attack Russian coast guard base in Crimea | Video: X/Anton Gerashchenko
According to Dickinson, the navy’s withdrawal from Crimea demonstrates that when faced with opposition, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to back down, regardless of the severity of the threats. “The Russian Navy’s willingness to retreat from its supposedly sacred home ports in Crimea has made a mockery of Moscow’s so-called red lines and exposed the insignificance of Putin’s nuclear threats,” the Atlantic Council blog said.
“Red lines” indicate clearly defined borders or conditions that Russia considers insurmountable and to the violation of which it would respond with significant measures, including military or economic sanctions. These lines include, for example, NATO’s eastward expansion or the military presence of Western forces near Russia’s borders.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and since then has used its naval base in Sevastopol as the main headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. “Remember this day,” Pletenchuk wrote on Facebook as Russia withdrew its last Black Sea Fleet warship from Crimea.
The reason why Russia withdrew its ships may be that Ukraine has been intensively attacking the Russian Black Sea fleet, using both aerial and naval drones or effective anti-ship missiles. Earlier this year, the Ukrainian military said it had destroyed a third of the fleet, and in March Britain’s Ministry of Defense declared the Black Sea Fleet “functionally inactive”.
Vladimir Putin during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi in Moscow. | Photo: Reuters
According to Dickinson, Russia’s response to the “growing setbacks” in the Black Sea refutes the Western narrative that a “cornered and defeated” Putin might resort to “the most extreme measures”, including the use of nuclear weapons. “In fact, he responded to the humiliating defeat of the Black Sea Fleet by quietly ordering his remaining warships to withdraw,” the Ukraine expert wrote.
It is the West’s concern about the escalation of the conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine or the use of nuclear weapons when crossing the mentioned red lines that play a crucial role in how much military aid and what equipment the Western allies will provide to Ukraine. There were similar doubts recently when the West allowed Ukraine to use supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia.
But Dickinson argues that evidence from what happened in the Black Sea confirms that “when Putin faces determined opposition, he is much more likely to back down than escalate the situation.
“The West’s fear of escalation is Putin’s most effective weapon,” he added. “It allows him to limit the military aid that goes to the attacked country, while preventing Ukraine from retaliating against Russia.” According to him, this “slowly but surely prepares the ground for the inevitable Russian victory in a long, exhausting war”.
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